OpenAI Bets Astra Can Take On Kimi K3 Even Though Nobody Can Run It Yet

Chinese open-weight rivals gain token share while OpenAI's unreleased Astra model claims 10 decade-old math problems. (Image: Shutterstock)
Chinese open-weight rivals gain token share while OpenAI's unreleased Astra model claims 10 decade-old math problems. (Image: Shutterstock)

OpenAI unveiled its next major model family, Astra, through 10 solved math problems, even as Chinese open-weight rivals capture a fast-growing share of global AI traffic.

Key Points:

  • OpenAI revealed Astra on Aug. 1 inside a research post claiming solutions to 10 problems left open for at least a decade.
  • The model has no release date, no confirmed name, and must clear a new federal review before reaching users.
  • Chinese open-weight models now take the majority of routed tokens, though US labs still capture almost all the spending.

Astra Solves 10 Open Math Problems

The company named the model on Aug. 1 inside a research post about mathematics rather than a product announcement.

An internal version of Astra produced fresh results on 10 problems in math and theoretical computer science, each of them unsolved for at least a decade.

OpenAI published a 249-page manuscript and machine-checkable Lean 4 proof certificates on GitHub under an open license.

The headline result is the first explicit construction of a non-sofic group, a question in group theory that had stood unanswered since 1999. Researchers say the tokens behind all 10 solutions would have cost roughly $2,000 at the API rates of Sol, the company's current flagship model.

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Mathematicians Weigh Astra's Proof Claims

Thomas Bloom, a University of Manchester mathematician who maintains a public database of Erdos problems, called the work big news, and rated it above the geometry result OpenAI announced in May.

He rejected the idea that machines are replacing his field, noting that the system trained on more than a century of writing by mathematicians. Noam Brown, an OpenAI researcher, said the team also tried and failed on several other famous questions. No Millennium Prize problem fell, though he argued that each attempt consumed relatively little compute and called the effort a major step for scientific reasoning.

Sam Altman previewed the system for lawmakers in Washington last week, and Astra should be the first model reviewed under a new federal framework. The company has not set a release date, and it has not decided whether the family ships as GPT-6 or as another GPT-5 variant.

Chinese Open Weights Reshape Token Demand

That timing matters, because the open-weight camp has stopped waiting for American labs to define the frontier. Nvidia chief Jensen Huang rallied several US technology giants behind open weights last month, while Anthropic chief Dario Amodei called for mandatory safety testing and tighter export controls on chips.

Moonshot AI released Kimi K3 in July with 2.8 trillion parameters and open weights, billed as the largest open model built so far.

On OpenRouter, the share of tokens routed to US models slipped from roughly 70% in June 2025 to about 30% a year later. American labs still collected close to 95% of the spending on one large enterprise gateway in June, and that revenue gap is exactly what Astra has to defend.

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Alexey Bondarev

Alexey Bondarev is the Head of Content at Yellow.com, having reported on crypto for the last 10 years. He specializes in in-depth Research and Learn pieces, with a focus on analytical reporting, industry context, and the bigger forces shaping crypto, from the AI era and security technologies to fintech innovation. He believes that everything digital will imminently overcome everything analogue and is working hard to make that come true.

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