Options trading data reveals a sharp divide in cryptocurrency market sentiment, with XRP and Solana attracting bullish bets while Bitcoin and Ethereum face persistent downside pressure despite recent price gains.
What to Know:
- XRP December call options trade at a 6 volatility point premium over puts, driven by expectations of spot ETF approvals from six major issuers
- Solana options show 10 volatility point call premiums following the Alpenglow upgrade approval that reduces transaction times to 100-150 milliseconds
- Bitcoin and Ether options remain bearish-tilted with puts commanding higher prices, reflecting concerns over stalled momentum above key levels
ETF Applications Drive XRP Optimism
Deribit options data from Amberdata shows XRP call options commanding higher prices than puts across all expiration periods. The December expiry calls particularly stand out, trading at a premium of 6 volatility points to puts, suggesting traders expect a year-end rally for the payments-focused cryptocurrency.
Six to seven major financial firms have filed XRP spot exchange-traded fund applications with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, CoinShares, Canary Capital and Franklin Templeton lead the group of applicants seeking regulatory approval.
The SEC has postponed decisions on these filings, with key approvals such as WisdomTree's XRP ETF pushed to late October 2025.
Market participants anticipate synchronized approval or rejection decisions that could significantly impact XRP's price trajectory. The cryptocurrency currently trades around $2.88, according to CoinDesk data, but bullish projections reach substantially higher levels.
Popular pseudonymous XRP holder Pimpius projects first-month ETF inflows exceeding $5 billion, calling it "a serious demand shock to a supply that's partly escrow-locked and concentrated." The analyst targets a $50 year-end price for XRP, representing a potential gain of over 1,600% from current levels.
Network Upgrades Fuel Solana Rally
Solana options demonstrate similar bullish characteristics, with December calls trading at a 10 volatility point premium to puts. The optimism stems from recent approval of the Alpenglow upgrade, which received support from more than 98% of network stakers.
The technical improvement reduces transaction finality from 12.8 seconds to 100-150 milliseconds, positioning Solana among the fastest operational blockchains. Bitget Chief Analyst Ryan Lee described the upgrade as "a defining moment for the network's trajectory."
Lee explained that enhanced speed capabilities will accelerate adoption in real-time trading and high-frequency strategies. The analyst emphasized that Alpenglow's design aligns blockchain settlement speeds with traditional financial systems, addressing institutional hesitancy toward decentralized infrastructure. This technical advancement makes Solana more attractive for institutional use cases requiring rapid transaction processing.
Bitcoin and Ether Face Bearish Headwinds
Bitcoin sentiment appears decisively negative, with put options priced higher than calls even for the March 2026 expiry. The world's largest cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain momentum above $100,000, facing headwinds from multiple sources.
Friday's disappointing U.S. jobs report heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, creating additional uncertainty for risk assets.
Analysts attribute Bitcoin's sluggish performance to declining ETF inflows, profit-taking by long-term holders, and whale rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies.
Ether options similarly favor puts through December expiry dates. The second-largest cryptocurrency has retreated sharply to $4,300 from record highs near $5,000 reached last month, reflecting broader market caution despite earlier optimism.
Understanding Options Trading Terms
Call options provide buyers the right to purchase an underlying asset at a predetermined price before expiration, representing bullish market positions. Put options offer protection against price declines, functioning as insurance for downward price movements. Volatility points measure the difference in implied volatility between call and put options, with higher call premiums indicating bullish sentiment.
ETF inflows represent institutional investment capital entering exchange-traded funds, often serving as demand catalysts for underlying assets. Escrow-locked supply refers to cryptocurrency holdings restricted from immediate trading, potentially amplifying price movements during demand surges.
Closing Thoughts
The cryptocurrency derivatives market reflects divergent expectations, with XRP and Solana positioned for potential gains while Bitcoin and Ether face continued selling pressure. ETF approval timelines and network upgrade implementations remain key factors driving near-term price action across major digital assets.