The Open Network (TON) is experiencing a significant downturn in user activity. This comes in the wake of the highly publicized Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) airdrop.
Recent data paints a stark picture. Daily active wallets on TON have plummeted by 65% since September 30: the number fell from 1.47 million to just 52,951 on October 7. This decline coincides with the Hamster Kombat airdrop on September 26. The event was rolled out over several days.
On-chain wallet activations show an even steeper drop. They're down 75% from their peak of 284,246 on September 19. By October 7, this figure had dwindled to 70,704.
These metrics are crucial. They represent user engagement with smart contracts within TON's apps and games. The timing is also noteworthy as Hamster Kombat announced its snapshot date for September 20. Once the airdrop concluded, player activity rapidly diminished.
Development around TON has also taken a hit. Cryptometheus data indicates a significant decrease in both core and ecosystem development. This decline points to a broader issue: sustainability. The network's reliance on play-to-earn (P2E) games may be its Achilles' heel.
Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, shared his insights with CCN. "While airdrops can spark short-term interest, the decline in wallet activity shows the limitations of purely incentive-driven engagement," he said. Kan added, "Users are more likely to return when there's deeper value beyond one-time rewards." The P2E model's success hinges on player satisfaction with their time and money investment. The backlash against recent airdrops suggests many users felt shortchanged.
TON's 2024 success was largely driven by addictive mobile crypto games. These acted as on/off-ramps for fresh capital on an otherwise quiet blockchain.
Looking ahead, Kan believes TON must diversify. "The long-term potential for TON lies in integrating financial services within Telegram," he stated. He drew parallels to WeChat Pay and Alipay. These platforms have successfully merged communication and finance.
Anyway, TON faces a paradox. Telegram boasts nearly 1 billion users, offering massive potential for crypto adoption. However, if its biggest attractions become its biggest failures, user activity may continue to spiral downward.
The challenge for TON is clear. It must move beyond short-term incentives and develop lasting value propositions. Only then can it hope to regain and retain its user base.