Independent chartist Quantum Ascend predicts Stellar's native token XLM could surge approximately 400% based on Elliott Wave analysis focused on market capitalization rather than dollar price. The analyst projects XLM's market cap could reach $60-71 billion, translating to a price target near $1.96 per token.
What to Know:
- Technical analyst uses market cap-based Elliott Wave study to predict XLM could gain roughly 5x from current levels
- Primary price target sits at $1.96 per XLM, with market cap projection of $60 billion representing 400% upside
- Analysis emphasizes fifth-wave advance completion, with confirmation tied to internal wave structure rather than single price milestone
Market Cap Analysis Drives Bullish Projection
Quantum Ascend's September 10 video analysis emphasizes market capitalization over spot price due to XLM's complex supply dynamics. The analyst noted significant divergence between price and market cap performance historically.
"Looking at this, the USD price is only up 12,000% while the market cap chart [is] up 52,000%. So there is some kind of inflationary pressure on the asset," he explained. This discrepancy stems from Stellar's evolving token supply structure.
The technical framework maps a cycle beginning in May 2016. Quantum Ascend identifies five waves up into January 2018's peak, five waves down into March 2020, followed by a new motive structure currently in progress. Wave four reportedly completed in April 2025.
Fibonacci Extensions Point to Aggressive Targets
The analyst's projection relies on overlapping Fibonacci measurements from multiple timeframes. He measures the third-to-fourth-wave drawdown alongside the broader 2021 range, finding confluence near the 3.618 extension level.
"My primary there is going to be $60 billion on the market cap, could see a throw over there to that $71 [billion] as well," Quantum Ascend stated. This translates to his primary price objective of $1.96 per XLM, with an aggressive extension reaching $2.28. The analyst emphasized Elliott Wave proportionality rules in his target selection. "We're looking at 400% or a 5X. Everyone's going to be screaming for $2; it's going to end up at like $1.96," he said. "Another reason that makes sense is that the third wave cannot be the shortest."
Current market data shows XLM trading around $0.386 with a $12.28 billion market capitalization as of September 11, 2025, according to CoinMarketCap. The projected $60 billion target represents approximately 4.9x appreciation from today's valuation.
Supply Dynamics Complicate Price Calculations
Stellar's token economics provide crucial context for the market cap-focused approach. The Stellar Development Foundation conducted a major supply adjustment in November 2019, burning 55 billion tokens and reducing total XLM supply to roughly 50 billion.
No new lumens are created at the protocol level since the burn. However, circulating supply continues evolving as SDF distributes treasury holdings over time. This mechanism explains why long-term market cap charts can diverge significantly from simple price movements.
The supply complexity particularly affects comparisons across different time periods. Epochs with varying circulating float create distortions when analyzing price performance alone, supporting Quantum Ascend's market cap methodology.
Technical Terms and Market Context
Elliott Wave theory identifies five-wave patterns in trending markets, with the fifth wave typically representing a final advance before reversal. Fibonacci extensions measure potential price targets using mathematical ratios derived from the Fibonacci sequence, commonly 1.618, 2.618, and 3.618 multipliers.
Market capitalization equals token price multiplied by circulating supply, providing a measure of total network value. This metric can offer more consistent trend analysis when token supply changes significantly over time.
Bitcoin dominance, macro liquidity conditions, and large holder distribution patterns could all influence XLM's actual trajectory. Technical analysis provides frameworks for interpretation rather than guaranteed outcomes.
Historical Context and Validation Criteria
The $1.96 target would establish a new all-time high for XLM, surpassing the previous peak of $0.938 recorded on January 4, 2018. In Elliott Wave methodology, structural new highs often validate terminal wave completion.
Quantum Ascend ties confirmation to internal wave structure development rather than single price achievements. The analyst suggests rapid, impulsive sub-structure could characterize the projected fifth wave, noting XLM's historical tendency toward condensed moves. An "88% week" in July was interpreted as part of the transition into the terminal advance phase.
Closing Thoughts
Quantum Ascend's technical analysis projects XLM could reach $60 billion market capitalization, equivalent to roughly $1.96 per token and 400% upside from current levels. The projection relies on Elliott Wave cycle completion and Fibonacci confluence, though macro factors and supply dynamics could alter timing and trajectory.