Privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC) surged more than 30% in 24 hours, climbing from $272 to an intraday peak of $374.74 on Sunday, October 26, following a bullish price target from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX.
The explosive move pushed ZEC's market capitalization past $5.9 billion for the first time, capping a 490% monthly rally that has made it one of 2025's best-performing major cryptocurrencies.
Hayes, known for his contrarian market calls and influence in crypto circles, posted on X (formerly Twitter) with a succinct "Vibe check – $ZEC to $10k," sending traders scrambling into the nearly decade-old privacy token that had languished for years in relative obscurity.
From Dormancy to FOMO: Hayes Effect Drives Buying Frenzy
The BitMEX co-founder's prediction triggered what crypto analysts have described as a month-long FOMO frenzy, with ZEC's trading volume surging to more than $1.43 billion in 24 hours—a massive spike from typical daily volumes. AB Kuai Dong, a crypto contributor on Binance Square, noted that the market reacted almost instantly to what appeared to be an endorsement from a "legendary Silicon Valley investor."
This isn't the first time Hayes' public comments have moved markets. In August 2025, his prediction that Hyperliquid's HYPE token could increase 126-fold resulted in a 4% immediate spike for that asset. His reputation for market-moving commentary, combined with Zcash's recent momentum, created perfect conditions for explosive price action.
"The post from Hayes, known for his contrarian macro views and market-moving comments, reinvigorated interest in the altcoin," BeInCrypto reported, noting that the rally comes after Zcash had broken an eight-year downtrend earlier in October.
Record Market Cap and Institutional Interest
Zcash's surge has been building throughout October, with the token gaining more than 750% over three months, according to CoinGecko data. The rally accelerated following the launch and reopening of Grayscale's Zcash Trust for accredited investors in early October, which has already accumulated more than $102 million in assets despite charging a 2.5% management fee.
The institutional product's success signals growing demand for exposure to privacy-focused digital assets, particularly as regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrency transactions intensifies globally. Grayscale highlighted in a post that Zcash "was created from the original Bitcoin code base, but it uses a privacy technology that encrypts transaction information and allows users to shield their assets."
Futures markets have reflected this enthusiasm, with open interest surging to over $334 million - its highest level since October 12 - compared to less than $20 million before the Grayscale announcement, according to data from CoinGlass.
November Halving Event Adds Supply-Side Catalyst
The rally comes ahead of Zcash's third halving event scheduled for November 2025, which will slash block rewards from 3.125 ZEC to 1.5625 ZEC. The supply reduction mechanism, similar to Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, is designed to create scarcity by limiting the rate at which new tokens enter circulation.
Historical data shows that Zcash experienced a 175% increase within three months following its first halving in November 2020, though the token never regained its 2017-2018 peak above $900. With only 21 million ZEC tokens ever to exist - matching Bitcoin's supply cap - the upcoming halving has become a key narrative for bulls positioning ahead of reduced issuance.
"The halving coincides with Bitcoin's post-halving period, potentially creating a favorable market environment," according to analysis on Gate.io, which noted that reduced selling pressure from miners could amplify scarcity-driven price action.
On-chain metrics support this thesis: approximately 27% of ZEC's total supply (roughly 4.8 million coins) has moved into private "shielded" wallets, reducing available liquidity and potentially amplifying volatility in both directions.
Privacy Narrative Resurfaces Amid Regulatory Pressure
Beyond supply dynamics, Zcash's rally reflects renewed interest in privacy-oriented cryptocurrencies as governments worldwide expand surveillance of blockchain transactions. Unlike Bitcoin's transparent ledger where all transactions are publicly viewable, Zcash employs zero-knowledge proofs (zk-SNARKs) technology that allows users to prove transaction validity without revealing sender, receiver, or amount.
This feature has drawn both praise from privacy advocates and scrutiny from regulators. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation will ban exchanges from handling privacy coins starting in 2027, while several major platforms including Binance and OKX have already delisted or restricted access to privacy tokens.
Nevertheless, the privacy narrative appears to be resonating with investors concerned about financial surveillance and the potential rollout of central bank digital currencies. Crypto analyst Lennaert Snyder noted on X that "Greyscale launched a Zcash trust this month, a Hyperliquid listing, an upcoming halving, and the 'BTC vs. Zcash' discussion triggered explosive momentum."
Fellow privacy coin Monero (XMR) also gained 3.6% in the 24-hour period, though it remains delisted from most major exchanges due to regulatory concerns.
Technical Outlook and Volatility Risks
From a technical perspective, ZEC has broken out of an ascending triangle pattern on the eight-hour chart, with technical analyst Clifton FX suggesting potential for another 100-150% upside if the breakout sustains. Immediate resistance levels sit at $380-$400, while key support has formed around $340 and $300.
However, momentum indicators flash warning signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) surged above 90 - its highest level ever recorded - indicating extreme overbought conditions that historically precede corrections. The token's daily RSI sat at 79 as of late Sunday, well above the 70 threshold that typically signals buyer exhaustion.
Not all analysts are convinced the rally has legs. Ignas DeFi, a popular decentralized finance analyst, called Zcash "the perfect case study for how narratives emerge and go viral," warning that many traders may become "exit liquidity for coordinated pumps." He described a reflexive loop where social media engagement amplifies FOMO, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that can reverse just as quickly.
Mert Helius, CEO of Helius Labs, expressed skepticism about valuations, questioning ZEC's market cap relative to larger-cap altcoins and suggesting the rally may be disconnected from fundamental value.
Regulatory Uncertainty Looms
Despite the euphoria, privacy tokens face an uncertain regulatory future. While the United States under President Trump has adopted a relatively favorable stance toward cryptocurrency, other jurisdictions continue flagging privacy coins as potential vehicles for illicit finance. South Korea and several European nations have pressured exchanges to delist such assets, limiting their accessibility to mainstream investors.
The tension between privacy advocates and regulators will likely intensify as blockchain surveillance tools improve and governments seek greater oversight of digital asset transactions. For Zcash, the challenge will be maintaining its privacy features while navigating an increasingly stringent compliance landscape.
Final thoughts
Zcash's explosive rally - driven by Arthur Hayes' bold $10,000 prediction, institutional accumulation through Grayscale, and anticipation of its November halving - has thrust the privacy coin back into the spotlight after years of underperformance.
Whether the momentum can sustain depends on factors ranging from broader crypto market conditions to the outcome of global privacy regulations.
For now, traders should approach with caution: while Hayes' track record and supply-side catalysts provide bullish tailwinds, extreme overbought conditions and regulatory headwinds present significant downside risks. As with all privacy-focused assets, volatility remains the only certainty.