XRP cryptocurrency faces a possible end to its months-long uptrend as a bearish technical pattern emerges, according to analyst Josh Olszewicz who identified a classic head and shoulders formation that could trigger significant price declines if key support levels fail to hold.

What to Know:

• Analyst Josh Olszewicz has identified a bearish head and shoulders pattern on XRP's daily chart
• A breakdown below the $2.00 support level could target prices between $1.13 and $1.40
• The pattern would be invalidated if XRP closes above $2.85, potentially continuing the bull cycle

Technical Analysis Points to Possible Reversal

The cryptocurrency XRP's price action has formed a textbook head and shoulders pattern that could signal the end of its multi-month bull cycle, according to cryptocurrency analyst Josh Olszewicz, known online as @CarpeNoctom. This bearish reversal pattern, visible on the XRP/USD daily timeframe, shows a triple-peak structure that typically precedes major downward movements. "I'd be shocked if this actually breaks higher," Olszewicz wrote on X, emphasizing during a recent livestream that this formation "continues to be the only thing I care about on this chart."

The pattern's left shoulder developed between early and mid-December 2024, reaching approximately $2.90 before pulling back. A more significant peak followed in mid-January 2025 when XRP briefly touched $3.40, forming what technicians call the "head" of the pattern. The right shoulder then materialized throughout February and March 2025, creating a lower high around $3.00 before prices began declining again.

Critical to this analysis is the "neckline" support at precisely $2.00, a level that has repeatedly prevented further declines since December. This psychologically significant round number represents the final defense before a potential breakdown that could confirm the pattern's bearish implications.

At press time, XRP traded precariously close to this threshold at $2.05.

Olszewicz's analysis also incorporates the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which further reinforces the bearish outlook. XRP currently trades beneath both the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) at $2.2462 and the Kijun-sen (base line) at $2.4528. Both lines have flattened, suggesting a significant loss of upward momentum. The asset's price action is consolidating within the Ichimoku Cloud, but the cloud ahead turns red, indicating potential resistance and continued weakness in coming trading sessions.

The thickness and flatness of the cloud, formed by Senkou Span A at $2.4836 and Senkou Span B at $1.9460, provide additional evidence of the market's indecision and potential vulnerability. These technical signals collectively paint a concerning picture for XRP bulls.

Price Targets and Scenario Analysis

If the pattern confirms with a decisive breakdown below the neckline, Olszewicz provided specific downside targets during his livestream analysis. "You'd be expecting $1.13 to $1.40," he stated, referencing the measured move calculation typically applied to head and shoulders patterns. This target range is derived by measuring the vertical distance from the head ($3.40) to the neckline ($2.10), approximately $1.30, and projecting that distance below the neckline.

The analyst didn't rule out more severe scenarios. "There is not an impossibility that this just rolls over the entirety of the move," Olszewicz cautioned. "Now that would be end-of-cycle stuff. That would be a bearish legacy, bearish everything — right? But that is in the cards here."

However, Olszewicz also clearly defined the conditions that would invalidate this bearish thesis. "You can't say it's not until we're back above $2.85," he stated. This specific level marks the last significant lower high before prices began to decline and coincides with the top of the right shoulder in the pattern. A daily close above this threshold would technically invalidate the head and shoulders formation and potentially signal a continuation of XRP's bullish cycle.

The significance of the current price action extends beyond just XRP. As one of the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, a major move in either direction could influence sentiment across the broader digital asset market. The coming days and weeks will likely determine whether this technical pattern completes or fails.

Various factors beyond technical analysis could influence XRP's price trajectory, including regulatory developments, overall cryptocurrency market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions. However, the current technical setup suggests traders should monitor the $2.00 support closely for confirmation or rejection of this potentially bearish scenario.

Market Implications

The timing of this potential reversal pattern comes during a period of heightened volatility across cryptocurrency markets. XRP's performance has significant implications for the broader altcoin market, as it historically serves as a bellwether for mid-cap digital assets.

If Olszewicz's analysis proves accurate and XRP breaks below the critical $2.00 support, the ripple effects could extend beyond just this single cryptocurrency. A confirmed breakdown would likely accelerate selling pressure and potentially trigger liquidations across leveraged positions.

Conversely, if buyers step in to defend the neckline and push prices back above $2.85, it could signal renewed bullish momentum not just for XRP but potentially for the cryptocurrency market as a whole. The resolution of this technical pattern may provide important clues about the market's overall direction in the coming months.

Conclusion

XRP stands at a critical technical juncture with a head and shoulders pattern suggesting possible downside to the $1.13-$1.40 range if the $2.00 support fails. While a move above $2.85 would invalidate this bearish scenario, current indicators including the Ichimoku Cloud metrics support the possibility of further decline.