Bitcoin may be gearing up for a major bullish breakout, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
As the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surges past 4.5%, Hayes believes mounting macroeconomic pressure could soon force a policy response from Washington - one that could serve as a launchpad for Bitcoin’s next leg up.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) on April 11, Hayes suggested such a pivot might arrive as soon as this weekend, potentially pushing Bitcoin into what he calls an “up only mode.”
Bitcoin Rises Amid Market Jitters
The bold forecast came as Bitcoin briefly touched $83,200 on April 11, according to data compiled by Crypto.news, marking a modest rally despite shaky risk sentiment across global markets. Bitcoin’s move higher led a broader crypto uptick, though gains remained capped amid heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Stock markets showed significant intraday volatility, driven largely by renewed fears over U.S.–China trade tensions. The Chinese government recently retaliated against the White House’s tariff hikes with new levies of up to 125% on American imports. These escalations, coupled with spiking bond yields, are weighing heavily on risk assets.
Yields in Focus as Macro Picture Shifts
Hayes isn’t the only one sounding the alarm on rising yields. Market analyst Scott Melker also took to X, calling bond yields and the U.S.–China tariff standoff the two most pressing concerns for investors right now. “Everything else is just details,” Melker wrote, underscoring how macro developments are currently overriding traditional crypto market signals.
Multiple voices across financial media are pointing to rising yields as a sign that “something is breaking” in the system. Even key economic data, such as recent U.S. inflation prints, are being largely shrugged off by markets that are more focused on the bond market’s message.
Recession Fears Add to Uncertainty
Adding to the bearish macro cloud, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said in an April 11 CNBC interview that the U.S. is likely already in a recession - or at the very least, teetering on the edge.
“You’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty,” he noted, referring to the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs as merely delaying further instability.
Bitcoin as a Macro Hedge?
In this environment, Bitcoin could once again find favor as a hedge against policy missteps and financial instability. Hayes’ theory is that a swift policy intervention - perhaps in the form of liquidity easing or interest rate adjustments - could ignite renewed momentum for BTC.
Whether or not such an intervention happens imminently, the ingredients for high volatility and dramatic moves appear firmly in place.
As the bond market blinks red and policymakers scramble, Bitcoin may be preparing to lead the charge.