Bitcoin’s long-term market temperature remains well below historical bull-market peaks, according to new data from CoinGlass, which show that none of the platform’s 30 major cycle-top indicators have been triggered as of Nov. 25.
The dataset, widely followed by traders for sentiment and macro-cycle context, suggests that several structural indicators remain far from levels historically associated with market tops.
CoinGlass’ dashboard tracks a wide range of metrics including miner revenue pressure, holder profitability, ETF inflows, risk-adjusted valuation measures, supply-side positioning, and long-term trend strength.
The current composite reading shows an average progress of 43.39% toward typical peak thresholds, indicating that most metrics have not reached historical extremities.
Key market-cycle indicators, including the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top, the 2-Year MA Multiplier, the Puell Multiple, and the MVRV Z-Score, all remain below their respective peak-signal reference values.
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart and ETF net-outflow signals also show no trigger conditions, while sentiment-anchored indicators such as the RSI (22-day), fear-of-loss supply ratios, and the Mayer Multiple continue to sit comfortably below overheated territory.
A few indicators, however, are meaningfully closer to historical peak zones.
Bitcoin dominance stands at 58.16%, approaching CoinGlass’ reference threshold of 65%.
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The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply, at 29.37%, is within half a percentage point of the 30% level typically associated with overheated market phases.
Long-term holder supply, currently 14.09 million BTC, is also near its reference boundary, reflecting a shift in supply distribution over recent months.
CoinGlass’ more valuation-driven metrics, such as the Bitcoin Reserve Risk and the Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), likewise show elevated but not extreme readings, with progress levels of 36.6% and 51.8% toward their respective peak thresholds.
The 4-Year Moving Average, one of the longer-cycle indicators, sits at 1.60 versus a peak reference of 3.5.
The dataset also includes external models, such as Strategy’s average Bitcoin cost basis ($74,080), the Golden Ratio Multiplier, and long-term forecasting ranges like Smithson’s Forecast.
All show significant remaining distance before reaching levels historically associated with prior market tops.
The absence of any triggered peak indicators highlights a notable contrast with late-cycle periods of past bull markets, where several metrics typically converge toward parabolic extremes.
As of now, CoinGlass’ data shows that most supply-demand, trend-strength, and valuation metrics remain structurally below their respective peak-signal benchmarks.
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