Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger declares that Bitcoin is "highly likely" in a supercycle. He shared his insights on X, emphasizing Bitcoin’s unique trajectory compared to previous market cycles. The notion of a Bitcoin supercycle refers to an extraordinary phase of price ascension, eclipsing typical boom-and-bust cycles. This phase implies prolonged growth, driven by increased mainstream adoption, setting Bitcoin on a stronger and more enduring upward path than its usual four-year halving cycle.

Krüger's remarks come amidst President-elect Donald Trump’s pro-Bitcoin pivot and his strategic plans for a Bitcoin reserve. He advised against comparing this cycle to those prior, stating, "Bitcoin is highly likely in a supercycle. The crypto industry has just experienced its most dramatic change in history, a 180-degree turn driven by fundamentals." Krüger elaborated on the rapid evolution of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency sector, which transformed from a state-skeptic pariah to an industry embraced by governments in mere weeks. This shift, he noted, is unparalleled in modern times.

Drawing parallels to historical financial changes, Krüger pointed to the transformative impact of the 1970s on gold. He explained, "Maybe gold in the 1970s is one. The 1970s was a transformative decade for gold. Nixon’s ending of the Gold Standard in 1971, dismantling Bretton Woods, sent gold surging from $35 per ounce to $850 in 1981." He further addressed the timing of Bitcoin’s potential peak, suggesting a major local top around March might be reasonable. This, he said, would depend on the slope of ascent, funding rates, and the broader economy. Krüger warned against equating a major local top with the start of a bear market, emphasizing that conditions for such a downturn are not yet present. "It’s too soon to be expecting a top. Bitcoin bull-runs always last for months. It’s only been 33 days since Trump unleashed the Kraken."

Highlighting market sentiment's volatile nature, Krüger cautioned, "The moment you all finally believe what I just wrote, then it will be the top." His statement underscores the psychological factors that often drive market dynamics, particularly the collective belief in peaks. Following Krüger's assertions, X user Paradox Parrot (@Paradoxparrot) remarked, “Agree. But, ‘this time is different’ is a good way to round trip back down.” Krüger countered the cyclical skepticism around altcoins, noting they've shown multiple differences at various levels since mid-2023. He attributed altcoin round trips to two main reasons: lack of fundamentally driven demand and illiquidity.

Despite Krüger's optimism, not all experts agree with the supercycle hypothesis. Chris Burnsike, partner at Placeholder VC, presented a contrasting perspective on X. On December 7, he asserted, "Bookmark it for later: a supercycle is never real – everything is cyclical, though cycles can vary. Buying into the idea of a supercycle is how you never sell and roundtrip. Ask anyone who never sold in 2021." At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded at $98,287.