Bitget CEO Gracy Chen issued a stark warning that the anticipated altcoin season will not materialize in 2025 or 2026, marking what may be a permanent shift in cryptocurrency market dynamics. The forecast reflects deteriorating conditions across alternative digital assets as liquidity and institutional capital increasingly concentrate on Bitcoin, leaving thousands of altcoin projects with diminishing investor interest and weakening price performance.
What to Know:
- Bitget's CEO says altcoin markets suffered severe damage from an October 11 event, compounded by over a year of declining venture capital funding for Web3 projects
- Trading volume across centralized exchanges has dropped 20-40% while altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by $800 billion this cycle
- The Altcoin Season Index fell to 37, its lowest level since mid-July, as momentum and liquidity shifted toward Bitcoin and crypto-related equities
Market Conditions Signal Extended Downturn
Chen posted her assessment, stating that altcoins are "fading" after what she described as a "Black Swan" event on October 11 that inflicted severe damage on an already weakened market. She noted that venture capital funding for early-stage Web3 projects had been declining for more than a year before that event.
"Retail investors trading altcoins face a terrible risk-reward ratio. Let's be real—the alt season will not come in 2025 or 26," Chen wrote in her post.
The Bitget CEO characterized large capital as increasingly risk-averse, pointing to weekly trading volumes across centralized exchanges that have fallen between 20% and 40%.
Several major market makers suffered liquidations after overleveraging their positions, she said. Chen described the current market phase as one of "doubt," reflected in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reading of 30 at press time.
She emphasized that recovery will require time and disciplined trading approaches.
Chen identified only a limited number of projects tied to real-world applications—including stablecoins, real-world assets and payment infrastructure—as potentially viable. Many of these projects will not issue tokens, she added, further constraining opportunities in the altcoin sector.
Bitcoin Dominance Reshapes Market Dynamics
Research firm 10x Research reported that momentum has decisively moved toward Bitcoin while altcoin liquidity continues to decline. The firm's analysis showed altcoins underperforming Bitcoin by $800 billion during the current cycle, with retail investors absorbing the losses.
"Altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin by an astonishing $800 billion this cycle — and retail investors are the ones left behind. While social media continues to promise the next 'alt season,' the data tells a different story," the firm stated in its report.
Korean retail traders, historically known for driving altcoin speculation, have redirected their focus toward crypto-related equities. Crypto-related stocks have posted substantial gains this year, outpacing Bitcoin returns in several cases.
"Liquidity, momentum, and conviction have all migrated elsewhere, leaving the altcoin market eerily quiet. Meanwhile, institutions are shaping this cycle in ways few expected — and retail may not yet realize what that means," 10x Research added.
The Altcoin Season Index, which tracks whether 75% of the top 50 non-stablecoin cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin over 90-day periods, dropped to 37. That represents its lowest reading since mid-July and confirms a "Bitcoin Season" designation. Discussion of altcoin narratives declined sharply in October, indicating investor fatigue with alternative digital assets.
Real-world assets refer to blockchain-based tokens representing physical or traditional financial assets such as real estate, commodities or securities. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain stable values by pegging to fiat currencies or other assets. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index measures market sentiment on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed) based on volatility, trading volume and social media activity.
Closing Thoughts
Chen's forecast suggests the cryptocurrency market is entering an extended period of Bitcoin dominance with limited prospects for broad altcoin rallies. The concentration of institutional capital and retail interest in Bitcoin, combined with declining venture funding and trading volumes, indicates structural changes rather than temporary market fluctuations.