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Can MSTR Keep Climbing With 14% Of Its Cap Bet Against It?

Can MSTR Keep Climbing With 14% Of Its Cap Bet Against It?

Strategy shares climbed 8% on Feb. 25, defying a Goldman Sachs and FactSet report that identified Michael Saylor's company as the most heavily shorted U.S. stock among equities valued above $25 billion, with short bets equal to roughly 14% of its market capitalization, even as the firm sits on approximately $7 billion in unrealized losses tied to its Bitcoin (BTC) treasury of 717,722 coins.

What Happened: MSTR Tops Short Leaderboard

The Goldman Sachs data, released last week, ranked Strategy No. 1 for short interest as a percentage of market cap among companies above $25 billion. Coinbase trailed at fourth place with 11%.

Strategy holds 717,722 BTC acquired for approximately $54.56 billion at an average price of $76,020 per coin, making it the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder. With BTC trading near $66,000 at the time of the report, the gap between cost basis and market value translated into roughly $7 billion in paper losses.

Despite that positioning, shares surged on Feb. 25 as Bitcoin rallied from around $64,000 toward $69,000 within hours. Because Strategy's equity functions as a leveraged proxy for BTC, its stock price tends to move with amplified volatility in either direction — and the roughly 14% short interest raises the prospect of forced buying if Bitcoin continues to climb.

Saylor, meanwhile, completed what the company marked as its 100th Bitcoin purchase since Aug. 2020, acquiring 592 BTC for approximately $39.8 million at an average price of $67,286 per coin between Feb. 17 and Feb. 22, according to an SEC filing. "Strategy has acquired 592 BTC for ~$39.8 million at ~$67,286 per bitcoin," Saylor posted on X on Feb. 23. "As of 2/22/2026, we hodl 717,722 $BTC acquired for ~$54.56 billion at ~$76,020 per bitcoin."

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Why It Matters: Squeeze Risk Grows

Analysts say much of the elevated short interest may not reflect outright bearish conviction. Market participants point to basis trades, where firms buy spot Bitcoin exposure through vehicles such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) while shorting MSTR to capture the premium between Strategy's equity value and its underlying holdings.

Fundstrat's Tom Lee framed the crowded short positioning as a potential bullish signal. "When a stock becomes a 'consensus' short, it is also a crowded trade," Lee wrote on X. "Hence, a stock can rise on 'bad news' because the bad news is priced in."

Brian Brookshire, advisor to Moirai Capital and former Head of Bitcoin Strategy at Swedish firm H100, offered a similar read. "I suspect a lot of this short interest is still MSTR/BTC basis trade," Brookshire said. "All bets are off when, not if, the BTC bull market returns."

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Disclaimer and Risk Warning: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and is based on the author's opinion. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile and subject to high risk, including the risk of losing all or a substantial amount of your investment. Trading or holding crypto assets may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author(s) and do not represent the official policy or position of Yellow, its founders, or its executives. Always conduct your own thorough research (D.Y.O.R.) and consult a licensed financial professional before making any investment decision.
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