Cardano (ADA) is forming a bullish divergence pattern on its daily chart similar to the technical setup that preceded a 32% rally between November and December 2025, while whale wallets have accumulated approximately 100 million ADA worth over $36 million since Jan. 12 and long-term holder selling activity has dropped by more than 99%.
What Happened: Bullish Divergence Forms Again
The current pattern shows ADA making lower price lows while its Relative Strength Index trends higher, a technical signal that selling pressure may be weakening.
The same divergence appeared between Nov. 4 and Dec. 31, 2025, and was followed by a significant price increase.
Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA increased their combined holdings from roughly 5.51 billion to 5.61 billion tokens in less than two weeks.
Long-term holders, those who have held ADA for 180 to 365 days, have largely stopped moving their coins. Spent coin activity for this group collapsed from about 67.47 million ADA on Jan. 14 to around 174,000 ADA recently, pushing activity to a monthly low.
Short-term holders present a different picture, with coins held for 30 to 60 days showing a 312% surge in movement from approximately 3.6 million ADA on Jan. 18 to roughly 14.84 million ADA.
Also Read: Cardano Founder Accuses Ripple CEO Of Surrendering To SEC In Regulatory Fight
Why It Matters: Key Price Levels Determine Outcome
The previous 32% rally failed because ADA could not reclaim its 50-day exponential moving average, which now sits near $0.41.
A daily close above that level would signal that short-term momentum is aligning with the bullish setup. Above $0.41, resistance appears at $0.43, then at $0.48 near the 200-day EMA.
Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks capital entering or leaving an asset, is trending higher despite falling prices, suggesting accumulation is occurring. During the previous rally attempt, CMF failed to hold above zero, signaling weak inflows.
A sustained break below $0.35 would weaken the bullish divergence and reopen a path toward $0.32.
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