Fidelity Digital Assets projects that 8.3 million Bitcoin tokens—approximately 42 percent of the cryptocurrency's total supply—will become illiquid by the second quarter of 2032. The financial services firm's analysis suggests this trend could drive significant price appreciation for the world's largest cryptocurrency as available trading supply diminishes.
What to Know:
- Fidelity's analysis identifies two key groups driving Bitcoin illiquidity: tokens unmoved for seven years and corporate holdings exceeding 1,000 Bitcoin
- Public companies now control 830,000 Bitcoin as of June 30, with 97 percent of corporate holdings concentrated among 30 firms
- The trend toward holding rather than trading Bitcoin has accelerated since Q3 2024, particularly among institutional investors
Corporate Bitcoin Accumulation Drives Supply Shortage
Fidelity's research methodology examined two distinct Bitcoin cohorts to measure illiquid supply patterns. The first group encompasses Bitcoin that remained unmoved for seven years or longer. The second includes publicly traded companies holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin tokens.
Data reveals that seven-year dormant Bitcoin has shown consistent quarter-over-quarter increases since tracking began in 2016. This cohort demonstrates high illiquidity characteristics, with holdings continuing to grow rather than returning to circulation.
Corporate Bitcoin accumulation presents an even more pronounced trend.
Public companies holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin have recorded only one quarterly decrease in total supply since 2020. These institutional holders represent 97 percent of all corporate Bitcoin ownership, with holdings heavily concentrated among 30 major companies.
The analysis indicates Bitcoin's circulating supply reached approximately 19.8 million tokens by the second quarter of 2025. Current projections suggest nearly half of this amount could transition to illiquid status within seven years.
Institutional Adoption Accelerates Market Dynamics
MicroStrategy, now operating under the name Strategy, continues leading corporate Bitcoin adoption efforts. The company recently expanded its holdings by purchasing an additional 525 Bitcoin tokens, maintaining its position as the largest corporate holder.
Japanese investment firm Metaplanet announced plans to raise $880 million specifically for Bitcoin acquisitions earlier this month. Cyprus-based Robin Energy allocated $5 million toward its Bitcoin investment strategy, demonstrating global institutional interest.
Recent data shows total Bitcoin holdings among public companies surpassed one million tokens, highlighting growing institutional confidence in the cryptocurrency as a store of value. This milestone reflects broader acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate treasury asset among corporate finance departments.
The accelerating trend toward holding rather than trading Bitcoin has intensified since the third quarter of 2024. Fidelity's analysis suggests this behavioral shift among major holders creates additional momentum for supply constraints.
Understanding Bitcoin's Supply Mechanics
Bitcoin operates on a predetermined maximum supply of 21 million tokens, creating inherent scarcity as adoption increases. Fidelity's analysis projects this finite supply will become progressively more illiquid over time as institutional adoption continues.
Illiquid Bitcoin supply represents tokens unlikely to return to active trading or transaction activity. This classification includes both long-term dormant holdings and strategic corporate reserves held for treasury purposes.
The cryptocurrency's liquid supply—tokens available for regular trading—continues shrinking as more investors adopt long-term holding strategies. This dynamic creates potential upward pressure on Bitcoin's market price as demand meets constrained supply. Bitcoin's mining rewards decrease through periodic halving events, further limiting new token creation. The next halving, expected in 2028, will reduce new Bitcoin production to 1.5625 tokens per block, intensifying supply constraints.
Closing Thoughts
Fidelity's analysis indicates Bitcoin's available trading supply faces significant constraints through 2032, driven primarily by corporate accumulation and long-term holding patterns. The projected transition of 8.3 million tokens to illiquid status could fundamentally alter Bitcoin's market dynamics and price discovery mechanisms.