CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted on February 1 that Bitcoin's realized capitalization has flatlined after roughly two and a half years of continuous growth.
He shared the PnL Index Signal with a 365-day moving average, which composites the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and short-to-long-term holder SOPR into a single valuation metric.
The indicator peaked around mid-2025 and has been declining since, currently trending toward neutral territory.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $78,500 at the time of writing, down approximately 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
What the On-Chain Data Shows
Realized capitalization tracks the total capital invested in Bitcoin by summing each coin at the price it was last transacted. When it grows, fresh money is entering the market. When it flattens while market capitalization declines, no new buyers are absorbing sell-side pressure.
Ju noted that long-term holders have been taking profits since early 2024. Glassnode data confirmed that long-term holders realized 3.27 million BTC in profits since the start of 2024, exceeding the 2021 cycle total. Spot ETF inflows and Strategy's aggressive accumulation previously offset this distribution. Those inflows have now largely stopped.
CryptoQuant's own firm-wide report confirmed that Bitcoin holders entered a net realized loss phase for the first time since October 2023. Since December 23, investors collectively realized losses totaling roughly 69,000 BTC. Annual net realized profits have fallen from 4.4 million BTC in October to approximately 2.5 million BTC - levels comparable to March 2022.
Why Ju Expects Consolidation, Not a Crash
Ju argued that a cycle-style crash of 70% or more is unlikely unless Strategy begins selling its 712,647 bitcoin holdings. The company's position recently went underwater at an average purchase cost of $76,037 per coin. CoinDesk reported that all holdings remain unencumbered and no convertible debt matures before the third quarter of 2027, meaning no forced selling is required at current levels.
Ju expects the downturn to resolve through prolonged sideways trading rather than a sharp recovery. Historical PnL Index declines from similar peaks produced extended range-bound phases before any sustained directional move.
Not all analysts agree with that framing. Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Derive, said the decline in net realized profit may reflect lower volatility driven by more sophisticated market participants entering the space, rather than a definitive bearish indicator.
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