Bitcoin (BTC) faces mounting pressure as CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues that fresh capital inflows have stalled entirely, leaving the market vulnerable to a potential 70% drawdown that hinges on whether Strategy shifts from accumulating to liquidating its holdings.
What Happened: Capital Inflows Stall
Ki posted on Feb. 1 that Bitcoin is falling because "selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in." He pointed to a flatlining Realized Cap metric as proof.
The CryptoQuant executive explained that early holders had been taking profits since last year, but strong demand from ETFs and Strategy's purchases kept prices near $100,000. "Now those inflows have dried up," he wrote.
Ki described Strategy as "a major driver of this rally" but argued the reflexive crash seen in prior cycles is unlikely without Michael Saylor reversing course. "Unless Saylor significantly dumps his stack, we won't see a -70% crash like previous cycles," he said.
The selloff has fueled speculation about whether Strategy might be forced to liquidate its Bitcoin holdings. The Kobeissi Letter addressed these concerns in a February 2025 report, stating that "forced liquidation of MSTR is not necessarily impossible, but it is highly unlikely." The firm explained that actual liquidation would require either a stockholder vote or corporate bankruptcy. That scenario appears remote given Saylor holds 46.8% voting power, effectively blocking such moves without his consent.
The analyst's base case is "a wide-ranging sideways consolidation" rather than a straight liquidation event.
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Why It Matters: Stablecoin Liquidity Signals Stress
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost provided supporting evidence, noting that stablecoin flows have reversed sharply. He described the current environment as "not conducive to risk taking."
The stablecoin market expanded by more than $140 billion since 2023, but total market capitalization began declining in December. Darkfost highlighted October as the last clear liquidity-heavy month, when average monthly netflows exceeded $9.7 billion.
Since November, those inflows have been "largely wiped out."
An initial $9.6 billion drop was followed by brief stabilization, then renewed outflows exceeding $4 billion, including $3.1 billion from Binance alone.