Crypto analyst Tony Severino identified parallel patterns between Bitcoin's current market cycle and its 2012-2015 performance, based on Relative Strength Index data posted Dec. 6. The comparison shows RSI levels dropping to similar ranges in both periods before subsequent rallies.
What Happened: Technical Pattern Analysis
Tony Severino shared chart comparisons on X showing Bitcoin's RSI behavior across two distinct cycles. The 2012-2015 period saw RSI climb gradually before declining to a 44 reading, while the current 2023-2026 cycle shows RSI falling to 38 after an earlier peak.
Both cycles displayed similar momentum patterns, including initial price bottoms, first peaks, subsequent momentum peaks and bearish divergence signals that preceded deeper corrections.
Severino suggested the current setup could mark the start of a year-long accumulation phase similar to the previous cycle, though he noted past patterns don't guarantee future results.
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Why It Matters: Historical Rally Precedents
Analyst AO pointed to additional technical signals supporting a bullish case. The Stochastic RSI on US10Y*CN10Y formed a bullish crossover, a pattern that preceded major Bitcoin rallies in 2013, 2017 and late 2020.
Each previous crossover led to substantial price increases, according to AO's chart analysis. The pattern's emergence suggests potential for similar upward movement if historical correlations hold.
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