Bitcoin may be setting up for a short-term bounce to $93,000 by year-end, but cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital is warning that the top digital asset will face a full bear market collapse in 2026, according to recent technical analysis shared with his 561,600 followers on social media platform X.
The pseudonymous analyst says Bitcoin crossed into oversold territory during its sharp decline to nearly $80,000 in recent weeks, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipping below 30 - a technical threshold that historically signals selling pressure may be overdone. Bitcoin's RSI reached 22.34, its lowest level since August 2023, according to market data.
The leading cryptocurrency has plunged approximately 28% from its record high above $126,000 reached in late October, with Bitcoin trading around $86,474 at the time of Rekt Capital's analysis. The weekly close above $86,000 is significant, as the analyst identifies this as an area of historical demand that has previously supported price rebounds.
Historical Support Zone Could Trigger Rebound
Rekt Capital points to Bitcoin's current position near the $90,000 range as a historical re-accumulation zone last seen approximately six months ago during the April-May 2025 period. The analyst notes this demand area previously produced a 20% rebound before breaking down, and after reclaiming the zone as support, Bitcoin rallied 37% to new all-time highs.
"Bitcoin is finding support at the historical demand area that supported the November 2024-February 2025 cluster in price action," Rekt Capital wrote. "This area also acted as a re-accumulation zone in late April 2025, early May 2025. Needs to hold here for a rebound."
The technical setup suggests Bitcoin could climb from current levels near $86,500 to a key resistance level at $93,000. However, Rekt Capital cautions that this recovery may not materialize until late December, and the outlook beyond year-end turns decidedly bearish.
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Four-Year Cycle Theory Predicts 2026 Bear Market
The analyst's warning about 2026 stems from his closely-followed four-year cycle theory, which tracks Bitcoin's price patterns following halving events. According to Rekt Capital's cyclical analysis, 2025 represents the peak year of Bitcoin's current bull market, while 2026 will usher in a full bear market phase, followed by a bottoming-out period in 2027.
"The fact that Bitcoin is now hovering below the Four Year Cycle level of $93,000 is likely an indication of how overextended this current retrace really is," the analyst stated. "History suggests the price should be able to end 2025 with a green candle, by closing above $93,000 before lapsing completely in 2026."
The four-year cycle theory is rooted in Bitcoin's halving events, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the block reward for mining by 50%. Historical data shows that after each halving, Bitcoin typically enters a parabolic phase culminating in a market peak, followed by a bear market and eventual bottom before the next cycle begins.
The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, and based on previous cycles, Rekt Capital predicted the parabolic phase would peak in late 2025. Past cycles saw Bitcoin take 273 days (2012 halving), 250 days (2016 halving), and 329 days (2021 halving) to reach market peaks after halvings.
Bulls Need to Break $103,000 to Show Real Strength
While a recovery to $93,000 would represent a 7.5% gain from current levels, Rekt Capital emphasizes that Bitcoin will ultimately need to surpass the downtrend resistance level at approximately $103,000 to demonstrate genuine bullish momentum and invalidate the bearish structure.
The cryptocurrency must also maintain its position above the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to preserve its bullish market structure. According to separate analysis from the trader, Bitcoin needs to close above the 50-week EMA - which intersects around $101,285 - to avoid invalidating its longer-term bullish setup.
Bitcoin's current technical position has generated mixed sentiment among traders. While the deeply oversold RSI reading suggests potential for a short-term bounce, experienced traders caution that oversold conditions can persist longer than anticipated, and such readings often signal strong downward momentum rather than an immediate reversal.
The next few weeks will prove critical as Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the $93,000 level before year-end. If successful, it would align with Rekt Capital's four-year cycle framework. However, the analyst's warning about a complete market lapse in 2026 suggests investors should prepare for significant volatility in the coming year, potentially including a return to much lower price levels as the bear market phase of the cycle unfolds.
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