Bitcoin (BTC) could plunge more than 14% from its current level near $65,000 to as low as $55,759, according to a bearish Elliott Wave forecast that identifies the cryptocurrency as entering the final downward leg of a five-wave corrective structure.
What Happened: Final Wave Down Begins
Elliott Wave Strategy, a market analyst on X who specializes in Elliott Wave structures, declared that BTC's corrective Wave 4 has ended and that Wave 5 — the final bearish impulse — is now in motion. The analyst's updated TradingView chart shows Wave 5 beginning at the tail end of a triangle formation that defined Wave 4.
The first downside target sits at the 1.0 Fibonacci Retracement level of $60,385. A deeper decline to $55,759, corresponding to the 1.618 Fibonacci level, represents what the analyst considers the likely market bottom.
If that target is reached, it would represent a drawdown of more than 55% from BTC's all-time high above $126,000. Elliott Wave Strategy has urged traders to prepare for continued weakness, noting that no clear signs of recovery exist until the corrective cycle is complete.
BTC has already moved through several key levels during earlier waves, breaking below the 0.382 retracement at $90,601 and sliding through the 0.5 level near $75,300 before entering the Wave 4 consolidation. The analyst noted in a Feb. 12 analysis that the temporary rally above $71,000 preceding Wave 4 should not be confused with a new bull cycle, and characterized the completed Wave 4 triangle — capped near $70,000 with support around $66,000 — as a bearish continuation pattern.
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Why It Matters: Correction Not Over
The forecast carries weight because Elliott Wave analysis attempts to map crowd psychology through predictable price patterns. If the five-wave bearish impulse identified by the analyst plays out, it would mean BTC has not yet found a floor — and that the relief rallies seen in recent weeks were merely a pause within a larger downtrend.
A drop to $55,759 would also push Bitcoin well below its current consolidation range and potentially trigger forced liquidations across leveraged positions. Until Wave 5 runs its course, the analyst's framework suggests that buying the dip remains premature.
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