Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who correctly forecast Bitcoin's (BTC) current downtrend, told his 1.1 million followers on X that the cryptocurrency could be setting up for a countertrend rally after falling below $71,000.
What Happened: BTC Breaks April Low
Cowen noted that Bitcoin had dropped below its April 2025 low, a development he said could signal either extended pain or a near-term bounce.
"If it does not bounce soon, this is going to be one hell of a midterm year," Cowen wrote. "If it can bounce, it gives us a few months and gets us closer to October without so much bad price action."
The analyst added that bearish sentiment had dominated for an extended period, which typically precedes countertrend rallies that give bulls temporary hope. He cautioned that such rallies often arrive when least expected.
Cowen warned that Bitcoin could first drop to its 200-week simple moving average, currently around $57,000, before any sustained recovery materializes.
"In 2014/2018/2022 when BTC fell below the 100-W SMA, it was straight to the 200-W SMA before any relief occurred," he wrote, adding that late Q3 or early Q4 would be a better time to deploy capital. Bitcoin traded at $70,941 at time of writing, down 4.1%.
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Why It Matters: Historical Patterns
Cowen's analysis draws on Bitcoin's behavior during previous market cycles, where breaks below the 100-week moving average consistently preceded drops to the 200-week level.
The analyst said the time to sell was late last year, not during midterm-year corrections. He characterized current trading activity as participants attempting to profit from support and resistance levels during a difficult period.
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