Bitcoin (BTC) could see a short-lived March rally toward the $74,000–$75,000 resistance zone before resuming its downtrend, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, even as spot ETF outflows exceeding $8.9 billion have pushed the average holder cost basis to roughly $79,000 — well above the current price.
What Happened: Seasonal Pattern Meets ETF Pressure
Cowen, in a recent YouTube update, pointed to a recurring annual structure in Bitcoin's price behavior: weakness into January and February, a rally into March, then renewed selling in April and May.
"It seems reasonable to have a rally into a lower high, which we tend to get in March," Cowen said. "There's no guarantee."
He flagged 2018 as a potential comparison. That year, BTC bottomed near $6,000 in February, held above that level through April, and did not set a new low until the summer.
On the upside, Cowen identified the $74,000–$75,000 range — a prior breakdown zone — as possible resistance, with the bear market resistance band sitting near $85,000, though it continues to trend lower.
Separately, on-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted the scale of recent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows in a CryptoQuant report. During the correction, these funds saw more than $8.9 billion exit as BTC traded below $70,000 for much of the downturn.
BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest product on the market, lost more than 42,000 BTC from a peak of over 806,000 BTC held by the fund. When ETFs face redemptions, they typically must sell Bitcoin to meet them, adding direct selling pressure.
The drawdown has since narrowed from roughly $8.9 billion to about $7.8 billion, suggesting outflow momentum is slowing.
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Why It Matters: Underwater Holders at $79K
The average realized cost basis for spot ETF holders sits near $79,000, according to CryptoQuant — meaning the typical position remains underwater. That level now functions as a key psychological threshold.
CryptoQuant cautioned that the $79,000 figure should be treated as an approximation. ETF flows can mask internal reallocations between participants, and the metric cannot capture every transaction within the funds.
If Cowen's seasonal framework holds, any March bounce would likely form a lower high rather than signal a trend reversal. Combined with ETF holders sitting at a loss, the setup suggests that resistance near $79,000–$85,000 could prove difficult to overcome without a meaningful shift in fund flows.
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