CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin (BTC) is firmly in bear market territory with all major demand and liquidity indicators signaling weakness, and predicted the bottoming process could take months rather than weeks.
What Happened: Bull Score Hits Zero
Moreno laid out his case using CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index, a composite of 10 metrics covering on-chain valuation, liquidity conditions, market data, and technical trends.
The index ranges from zero to 100, with zero being the most bearish. It has remained between zero and 10 for roughly six weeks.
"What it's telling us is there's too much weakness in either the data or in the markets," Moreno said.
He pointed to US spot Bitcoin ETFs as a key drag, noting they shifted to net selling in Q4 and remained sellers into early 2026, offloading more than 10,000 BTC in January compared with purchases of 46,000 BTC during the same period a year earlier. The Coinbase premium, a proxy for US demand, flipped negative in November and has stayed there most of the time since.
Stablecoin liquidity has also stalled since mid-October, cutting off what Moreno called "dry powder" for traders.
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Why It Matters: Recovery Timeline Uncertain
Moreno identified the trader on-chain realized price as overhead resistance near $89,000 and $79,000, with $70,000 as an intermediate target and $56,000 as a deeper level tied to cost-basis data.
He emphasized that Bitcoin crossed below its one-year moving average in early November and has failed to reclaim it, a pattern he compared to early 2022.
"First of all you have to accept this. We are in a bear market. So plan accordingly," Moreno said. "There will be price rallies but don't confuse that with the start of a bull market."
He projected the first credible bottoming window could emerge around Q3 2026, depending on whether demand, US flows, and liquidity indicators stop flatlining.
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