Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi priced Saturday's Steve Erceg vs. Ramazan Temirov flyweight bout at 52 cents to 48 cents, the tightest market on the UFC Abu Dhabi card.
Key Points:
- Erceg and Temirov opened near even money on both platforms, closer than any other fight on the Abu Dhabi main card.
- Polymarket has held exclusive prediction market rights with the UFC since November 2025, while Kalshi lists the same bouts without a deal.
- A federal proposal would formally clear contracts on fight outcomes, with public comment closing Jul. 27.
Erceg Temirov Pricing Splits Kalshi And Polymarket
The co-main event sits one slot beneath the light heavyweight headliner at Etihad Arena, on a Paramount+ card whose preliminary bouts opened at 9 a.m. Eastern.
Both platforms priced Temirov between 52 and 53 cents, against Erceg at 48 to 49 cents. Nothing else on the six-fight main card ran that close.
Erceg, a former title challenger ranked 10th at flyweight, holds two straight decision wins after a three-fight skid that began with his loss to Alexandre Pantoja. Temirov returns unranked on an 11-fight winning streak, having sat out roughly a year on a suspension for a positive drug test.
Sportsbooks read it the same way, posting both men at -110.
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Polymarket UFC Partnership Deepens MMA Coverage
TKO Group Holdings named Polymarket the exclusive prediction market partner of the UFC and Zuffa Boxing in November 2025, the first such deal in major sports. The agreement placed a live Fan Prediction Scoreboard inside broadcasts, tracking win probability as rounds unfold. Kalshi has no comparable arrangement, yet its books on the same fights run just as deep.
Erceg told reporters at media day this week that he wants to headline cards consistently, calling this fight another step toward becoming a champion. He described Temirov as a hard, wild striker with deceptive footwork, and expected a puzzle rather than a quick finish.
CFTC Rules Shape Prediction Market Growth
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed in June to allow event contracts on sporting outcomes, including straight win-loss results and tournament advancement.
Contracts on single plays, injuries, officiating decisions and high school sports would remain barred. Public comment closes Jul. 27, two days after this card.
The proposal follows a stretch in which the agency policed these markets using derivatives rules never written for them.
Trading across registered exchanges topped $25 billion in 2025, and the commission withdrew an earlier plan to ban sports contracts in February, after states and platforms spent months in court.
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