Fears over Ethereum's layer 2 scaling solutions potentially diminishing mainnet revenue and affecting prices might be premature, industry experts suggest. Ethereum's approach to scaling through layer 2s remains scrutinized, but its long-term growth potential remains a topic of debate among analysts.
In a recent interview with Cointelegraph, Katalin Tischhauser, Head of Research at Sygnum Bank, emphasized that it's too early to conclude whether Ethereum's layer 2 strategy is cannibalistic or growth-oriented. Tischhauser explained that while layer 2 solutions draw business from the Ethereum mainnet — contributing to declining fees — they may also open new revenue channels for the mainnet.
The Ethereum base layer could experience net growth as layer 2 solutions enable new transaction types that weren't previously feasible. As layer 2s still need to settle on the mainnet, a substantial growth in layer 2 activity could ultimately lead to Ethereum's overall growth as well.
Currently, Ethereum's daily fees range between $1 million and $5 million, a stark contrast to the consistent $30 million seen in 2021 and 2022. This revenue dip briefly came into focus on Oct. 10 when Uniswap, a major fee contributor, announced its shift to the new layer 2 Unichain, potentially leading to a revenue loss for Ethereum validators.
Matthew Sigel, VanEck's Head of Digital Asset Research, noted that ongoing shifts to layer 2s might affect Ether's pricing. Observing a 10:90 ratio of transaction revenue between Ethereum and layer 2s in recent months, Sigel adjusted VanEck's 2030 Ether price forecast from $22,200 to $7,300 if the trend persists.
The downturn in Ethereum's revenue has contributed to a negative sentiment around the cryptocurrency. Ether's performance has been underwhelming compared to rivals like Bitcoin and Solana, as pointed out by Leena ElDeeb from 21Shares.
Despite these challenges, Henrik Andersson, Chief Investment Officer at Apollo Capital, believes Ethereum's scaling initiatives have reinforced its position as the foremost layer 1 blockchain. Without such developments, Ethereum risked losing its dominance to competitors.
Andersson suggests that Ethereum's advancements could lead to increased long-term revenue by retaining users who might otherwise migrate to other blockchains. He posits that Ethereum might soon be regarded as a "higher beta crypto bet," potentially closing the gap with Bitcoin over the next six months. Andersson even speculates on a new all-time high for Ether, possibly as early as 2025.
Currently, Ether trades at $2,520, which is 48.4% below its peak of $4,878 set on Nov. 10, 2021.