Ethereum is regaining its footing above a critical support zone this week, renewing speculation that the second-largest crypto asset by market cap could be heading toward its macro range high near $3,800.
The rebound is being closely watched across technical and macro indicators, many of which resemble conditions seen in early 2024 - when ETH rallied over 50% in just a few weeks. As of May 30, Ethereum is trading above $2,620, posting a monthly gain of nearly 45%. It marks the first time since February that ETH has decisively reclaimed the $2,600 level as support, and analysts are increasingly pointing to historical analogs and technical confirmations that suggest the current breakout could have room to run.
The current price structure appears to mirror Ethereum’s behavior from earlier this year. In that previous rally, ETH broke through the $2,486 resistance, consolidated, and then surged more than 50% in four weeks. According to analysts like Rekt Capital, the same conditions are materializing - albeit on a slightly longer timeline.
Ethereum has consistently closed above the $2,468 level for the past month, setting the stage for what many interpret as a range-wide expansion. “It’s setting up for a lift across the range,” Rekt Capital noted, referring to the macro band between $2,220 and $3,900.
A bullish flag formation observed by technical analyst Titan of Crypto recently resolved to the upside, pushing ETH as high as $2,788. If the breakout continues to play out according to the measured move, the implied target lies near $3,800 - aligned with the top of Ethereum’s long-term range.
Crypto Jelle, another market observer, flagged the $2,850 zone as a key resistance cluster. A break above that level could accelerate momentum toward $3,000, and potentially trigger a broader altcoin rally - a phenomenon some traders have dubbed “altseason.”
Ethereum vs. Bitcoin: Momentum Shift
Beyond the USD pair, Ethereum is showing signs of strength relative to Bitcoin. This is significant, as ETH has underperformed BTC for much of the past two years.
According to analyst Ted Pillows, ETH/BTC is showing a bullish crossover on the weekly MACD, paired with a successful reclaim of a multi-year trendline. These signals are often interpreted as precursors to significant trend shifts in market leadership.
BTC dominance - defined as Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap - has been sliding in recent weeks. That weakening dominance, combined with ETH’s resilience, could be indicative of capital rotation toward altcoins after a long BTC-led cycle.
The current ETH price action is also drawing comparisons to late 2024, when a golden cross - a bullish signal triggered when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day - preceded a large upside move.
Merlijn The Trader pointed to a similar golden cross setup today, suggesting that price behavior is tracking the historical script with uncanny precision. “Last time, there was a dip before a large rally. This time, the rally has already started,” he noted.
While historical analogs are no guarantee of future performance, pattern-based traders often lean heavily on such setups to inform their short- to medium-term views.
Resistance Zones
Ethereum’s broader macro structure - defined between $2,200 and $3,900 - has held since early 2023. The current bounce from sub-$2,000 lows earlier this month appears to be a continuation of that structure, rather than a breakdown.
From a market structure perspective, the $2,400–$2,600 region has functioned as a key mid-range battleground. With this level now serving as support again, analysts believe ETH could be primed for another test of the upper boundary.
Still, resistance levels at $2,850 and $3,000 are considered critical inflection points. A failure to reclaim these zones could result in a renewed period of range-bound activity or a retracement back toward $2,600.
While much of the focus is on technical factors, the broader sentiment environment also plays a role. Ethereum’s long-awaited Dencun upgrade, rolled out earlier this year, significantly reduced transaction costs for Layer 2 networks and has reignited optimism about Ethereum’s scalability roadmap.
Institutional exposure to ETH has also grown in parallel with the approval of spot Ethereum ETFs in several jurisdictions. While U.S. regulators have yet to fully greenlight these products, anticipation has helped drive investor interest - and could serve as a secondary catalyst if approvals materialize in Q3 or Q4.
Meanwhile, on-chain activity and developer traction remain robust. Daily active addresses, smart contract deployments, and stablecoin usage on Ethereum have all trended upward, supporting the thesis that ETH is not only a trade but a network with strong underlying demand.
Final thoughts
Despite the bullish narrative, risks remain. A resurgence in macroeconomic headwinds - such as renewed rate hike speculation or equity market volatility - could derail risk asset rallies, including ETH.
Moreover, any material delays or setbacks in ETF approvals or scaling implementations could affect sentiment. Finally, the correlation between ETH and broader altcoins remains high, meaning that systemic DeFi or security issues could spill over.
Still, with ETH outperforming Bitcoin for the first time since 2022, technical breakouts aligning across multiple timeframes, and market structure favoring continuation, the short-term bias among analysts remains tilted to the upside.
If Ethereum does break above $3,000 in the coming weeks, the case for a retest of the $3,800 range high will strengthen - potentially setting up a broader trend shift as the market heads into the second half of the year.