Apple launches its iPhone 18 Pro lineup Friday after lukewarm pre-orders pushed GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu to cut his production estimate to 72 million units.
Key Points:
- Jeff Pu called iPhone 18 Pro pre-order wait times lukewarm and lowered his build forecast to 72 million units.
- JPMorgan measured global delivery lead times of seven days for the Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max, both below last year.
- Apple prices the iPhone 18 Pro from $1,199, with the foldable iPhone Duo opening for pre-orders Oct. 16.
Jeff Pu Cuts iPhone Production Forecast
Pu called the pre-order wait times lukewarm in a research note published Tuesday. He blamed limited hardware upgrades and higher prices, especially across the larger storage tiers, and kept a Hold rating on Apple with a $369 price target.
Most 256GB and 512GB iPhone 18 Pro Max models in the United States now carry waits of three to four weeks. Nearly every configuration of the smaller Pro can still reach buyers on launch day. Burgundy ranks as the most requested color this year, while Silver attracts the least interest among the four finishes on sale.
The iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199 and the Pro Max at $1,299, climbing to $2,499 for the 2TB version. Pu lowered his combined build forecast for the two phones to 72 million units, citing constraints tied to the variable aperture camera that arrives with this year's Pro models.
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JPMorgan Lead Times Trail iPhone 17
Wall Street desks tracked shorter delivery windows than a year ago, though they disagree on what those numbers say about demand. JPMorgan analysts led by Samik Chatterjee found global home delivery averaging seven days for the Pro and 19 days for the Pro Max. The equivalent iPhone 17 models stood at 15 and 24 days, and China recorded the sharpest drop, at 13 and 21 days against 30 days for both phones last year.
In the United States, which accounts for roughly 34% of iPhone shipments, the Pro came in at two days against four a year earlier, while the Pro Max edged up to 22 days from 21. Chatterjee wrote that consumers are probably holding out for the foldable Duo, particularly in China.
Apple iPhone Duo Clouds Demand Read
Chatterjee and his team cautioned that Apple skipped a base model this autumn, so supply allocations may not compare cleanly with earlier cycles. Pu separately trimmed his 2026 estimate for the Duo from 7 million units to 6 million, blaming production problems with the hinge. He still expects the foldable, which opens for pre-orders Oct. 16 at $1,999, to draw buyers away from the Pro Max.
Half an hour after pre-orders opened on Sept. 12, no iPhone 18 Pro configuration in the United States showed any delay, a clear break from recent Apple launches. By Sept. 14 most estimates had slipped into late September and October, with the Pro Max quoted for Oct. 6 to Oct. 13.
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