Nasdaq filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to list binary options contracts tied to its flagship stock index, marking the exchange operator's first structured product that resembles a prediction market as the sector heads toward an estimated $21.24 billion in global size by 2026.
What Happened: Binary Options Filing
The New York-based exchange operator is seeking approval to offer yes-or-no style options on the Nasdaq-100 index and its micro index counterpart. Contracts would be priced between 1 cent and $1.
The move places Nasdaq alongside other traditional exchanges racing to list event-based contracts, a space previously dominated by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. CME Group, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has already taken steps to court retail traders in the segment.
The CFTC recently launched a program called Future-Proof aimed at updating the regulatory framework around digital assets and prediction markets. Binary options, however, fall under the SEC's authority — and Nasdaq's filing signals that legacy exchanges see room to adapt the prediction market format for the regulated securities world.
Cboe Global Markets also plans to roll out its own event contracts in the second quarter, though those will center on business and market events rather than sports. On the crypto side, Coinbase (COIN) introduced prediction markets last December, opening political, economic and cultural event contracts to digital asset traders, while MetaMask added Polymarket access through its mobile app that same month. Separately, Axiom launched a prediction market on the XRP (XRP) Ledger in January, allowing XRP and RLUSD holders to trade on live markets.
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Why It Matters: Wall Street Adapts
The global prediction market was valued at an estimated $17.49 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $113.46 billion by 2035. That trajectory explains why regulated exchanges are no longer content to watch from the sidelines.
Nasdaq's filing is notable because binary options carry a different regulatory profile than the futures contracts offered by CME Group.
By going through the SEC rather than the CFTC, Nasdaq is testing whether the securities framework can accommodate prediction-style products — a question that could reshape how traditional finance participates in one of the fastest-expanding corners of the market.
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