OpenAI is leaning toward a 2027 stock market debut as chief executive Sam Altman holds out for a $1 trillion valuation, potentially letting rival Anthropic go public first.
Key Points:
- OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC in June but has confirmed no listing date and stressed the paperwork does not mean a debut is imminent.
- Kalshi traders put 59% odds on an IPO announcement by Mar. 1, 2027.
- Anthropic, privately valued at $965 billion, reportedly targets an October debut.
OpenAI IPO Delay Explained
The ChatGPT maker confidentially filed a draft prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission in June, then quickly cautioned investors that the paperwork did not signal an imminent listing. Advisers laid out two paths, according to people briefed on the internal talks: wait until 2027 to support a $1 trillion price, or float sooner and accept a lower one. Altman rejected the cheaper route.
The hesitation follows a turbulent June debut by SpaceX, whose stock surged past a $2 trillion market value before shedding roughly 25% to 30% from its highs within weeks. Shares of SoftBank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, all financially tied to the offering, fell when word of a possible delay first spread across trading desks.
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Anthropic Race And Kalshi Odds
Whoever lists first will write the rulebook.
Bankers have told both companies that the first frontier lab on the market gets to define the comparables, the metrics and the multiple that everyone else trades against. Anthropic filed its own confidential prospectus on Jun. 1 and reached a $965 billion private valuation in late May, ahead of OpenAI's $852 billion funding round completed in March. The Claude maker reportedly wants an October debut on Nasdaq.
Prediction markets have moved with the news. Traders on Kalshi give 59% odds that OpenAI formally announces an IPO by Mar. 1, 2027, and 73% odds by June of next year, while only about one in three expect an announcement before Jan. 1.
The timeline has shifted more than once over the past year. Plans for a listing valuing the company at up to $1 trillion first surfaced in late 2025, and by January bankers were laying groundwork for a fourth-quarter 2026 debut.
The economics explain the hesitation, since analysts project a $14 billion loss this year, while the audited net loss already swelled from $5 billion in 2024 to $39 billion in 2025.
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