Solana's price continues to climb while the network's transaction activity has plunged nearly 50% since late July, creating a disconnect that analysts say could signal trouble ahead. The cryptocurrency traded at $221 on Friday, maintaining gains despite daily transactions falling from 125 million to 64 million over recent months. This divergence between price and network fundamentals has sparked debate over whether the rally stems from genuine adoption or speculative trading.
What to Know:
- Solana's daily transaction volume dropped from 125 million on July 24, 2025, to roughly 64 million currently, a decline of nearly 50%.
- Despite the transaction drop, SOL continues trading above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $221.
- Analysts remain divided on whether declining transactions reflect reduced voting activity or weakening user engagement across DeFi and NFT platforms.
Network Activity Contradicts Price Momentum
Crypto Onchain, an analyst at CryptoQuant, identified what he described as a negative divergence in Solana's onchain metrics. While the token's price has pushed higher in recent weeks, the underlying network shows sharp contraction in transactional throughput.
The data reveals a concerning pattern. In healthy market conditions, rising prices typically align with increased ecosystem usage. Instead, Solana's numbers suggest the rally may be fueled more by market sentiment than organic growth. DeFi protocols, NFT marketplaces and user transfers normally drive sustainable price appreciation, but those metrics haven't kept pace with SOL's gains.
The decline, however, requires context.
Somewhere between 80% and 90% of Solana's recorded transactions historically consist of "voting" operations essential to network consensus.
A reduction in voting transactions doesn't necessarily mean users are abandoning the platform. If the drop concentrates in DeFi interactions and NFT activity, that would present a different picture entirely.
Some market participants argue the transaction decline reflects technical adjustments rather than fundamental weakness. Changes to how the network processes voting could explain much of the statistical drop without indicating reduced real-world usage. Others see the divergence as a warning sign that speculative enthusiasm, not adoption, is driving prices.
The broader cryptocurrency market faces its own challenges. Bitcoin has struggled to break into sustained price discovery, creating headwinds for alternative cryptocurrencies. Solana rallied strongly through recent weeks despite this backdrop, but now shows signs the momentum may be stalling.
Technical Outlook Shows Mixed Signals
Solana traded at $221 on Friday, down 3.5% from recent highs above $240 reached earlier this month. The cryptocurrency entered what technical analysts call a consolidation phase following its extended rally.
The chart structure remains favorable to bulls.
SOL continues trading above its key moving averages, with the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day indicators all trending upward.
This configuration typically suggests underlying strength despite short-term pullbacks.
The $210 to $215 range represents immediate support, aligning with the 50-day moving average. Holding above this zone would indicate buyers maintain control and could set up another test of the $240 to $250 resistance area. A clean break above those levels might open a path toward $280, where Solana faced selling pressure in late 2024.
A drop below $210 changes the calculation. That would likely trigger deeper corrections with potential targets near $190. The 50-day moving average has served as reliable support during the current rally, making it a critical line for maintaining bullish momentum.
Understanding the Metrics
Transaction volume measures the total number of operations processed on a blockchain network. In Solana's case, this includes everything from simple token transfers to complex smart contract executions, as well as the voting transactions validators use to reach consensus on the network's state.
DeFi, or decentralized finance, refers to financial applications built on blockchain networks that operate without traditional intermediaries. NFTs, or non-fungible tokens, represent unique digital assets traded on these networks. Both categories reflect actual user engagement beyond the technical operations required to maintain the blockchain itself.
Moving averages smooth price data over specific time periods to help identify trends. The 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages serve as widely watched indicators. When a cryptocurrency trades above all three and they point upward, technical analysts generally interpret this as bullish momentum.
Price discovery occurs when an asset trades at new all-time highs with no historical resistance levels to reference. Bitcoin's difficulty establishing sustained price discovery has created uncertainty across the broader cryptocurrency market.
What Comes Next
Investors now face competing interpretations of the same data. The transaction decline could represent either a technical quirk in how Solana processes network operations or genuine weakness in user adoption. Price action over coming weeks will likely determine which narrative proves correct.
If transaction activity stabilizes or recovers while prices hold above key support levels, the recent pullback would appear more like a healthy consolidation. Continued declines in network usage combined with price weakness below $210 would reinforce concerns about speculative excess. The cryptocurrency market remains in a period of heightened uncertainty, with Solana's diverging metrics adding another layer of complexity to an already volatile environment.