Bitcoin hasn't reached its bull market peak despite touching $126,000 last year, according to crypto analyst Plan C, who argues the business cycle — currently at 47.9 on the ISM PMI index — must climb to between 55 and 65 before the flagship cryptocurrency typically records its cycle high.
What Happened: Business Cycle Analysis
Plan C shared the analysis on X, noting that historical BTC bull market peaks have occurred when the ISM PMI reaches between 55 and 65. The December reading of 47.9 remains below the critical 50 threshold that typically precedes parabolic price movements.
The analyst was responding to fellow BTC analyst Sminston, who posted a chart showing Bitcoin tends to rally sharply once the ISM PMI breaks above 50.
Sminston described the current market as "the spring still coiling." His chart projected BTC could rise well above $100,000 as the ISM PMI targets the 65 level.
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Why It Matters: Recovery Threshold
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode identified a sustained reclaim of the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $99,100 as the first meaningful confirmation of Bitcoin's recovery.
The firm warned the current structure resembles early 2022, when prolonged inability to recover above this level preceded a deeper bearish extension.
CryptoQuant added that large Bitcoin investors are not buying the dip, with a similar rollover occurring between 2021 and 2022 before BTC topped.
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