Not much has changed since my last analysis. As you already know, I remain bearish, and I said that as long as we failed to break above $67K, Bitcoin (BTC) would likely head back towards the $60K area.
You also know that my analysis is mainly based on technical analysis and psychotrading. There isn't much new to analyze here because the structure hasn't really changed, but let me tell you something:
There are still approximately 50 days of the bear market left if the cycle continues to play out as expected.
For some time now, BTC has been moving sideways within the $60K-$65K range.
But why?
The reason is quite simple: we are in an accumulation phase, which means we are either forming the bottom or getting very close to it. We could still see one final liquidation spike below the range before the market gradually starts moving higher.
On the daily timeframe, we can see the area around $62K holding well as support, while the $65K-$67K area continues to act as resistance.
Does that mean we're bullish?
No. Not yet.
We are still in a bear market. But if history and the cycle repeat themselves, there may not be much time left.
We also have to remember that we're in the summer period, when markets typically experience lower activity and reduced volatility.
But this is often what accumulation looks like.
During an accumulation phase, you normally don't see constant, significant bullish moves. Once accumulation is complete and the market finally leaves this area, there is a strong possibility that we won't see these price levels again for years - or potentially ever again.
That's why, for me, the entire area below $65K is a zone to gradually DCA.
Many investors will eventually get tired of waiting for even lower prices. And when the market starts moving, that patience can quickly turn into FOMO - the fear of missing the opportunity because they didn't buy when prices were still low.
Figure 1. BTC/USDT daily chart showing the current consolidation range and the $65K-$67K resistance zone. Chart: BTC/USDT, 1D timeframe (KuCoin / TradingView).