BlackRocks iShares Bitcoin Trust erlitt seinen größten eintägigen Abfluss seit der Einführung im Januar 2024, wobei Investoren am Dienstag $523,2 Millionen abzogen – eine scharfe Eskalation des institutionellen Rückzugs, der den Zusammenbruch des Kryptomarktes im November geprägt hat.
Der Rekordrückgabe-Zugang drückte den weltweit größten Spot-Bitcoin-ETF in seinen fünften aufeinanderfolgenden Tag mit Nettoabflüssen, insgesamt $1,43 Milliarden über diesen Zeitraum. Die kumulierten Abflüsse im November von IBIT allein haben nun etwa $2,1 Milliarden erreicht, was den Großteil der fast $3 Milliarden ausmacht, die in diesem Monat alle US-Spot-Bitcoin-ETFs verlassen haben.
Der Exodus hat den durchschnittlichen Kaufpreis auf eine hauchdünne Marge gebracht. Jim Bianco von Bianco Research zufolge liegt der durchschnittliche Kaufpreis über alle Spot-Bitcoin-ETF-Zuflüsse seit Januar 2024 bei $90.146. Da Bitcoin nahe $91.000 gehandelt wird, befinden sich die meisten institutionellen Investoren, die über diese Produkte eingestiegen sind, erstmals seit dem Beginn der Rallye knapp im Plus.
Die Abflüsse vom Dienstag aus IBIT übertrafen den bisherigen Rekord des Fonds von $463 Millionen, der nur fünf Tage zuvor am 14. November erreicht wurde. Das Muster spiegelt eine anhaltende institutionelle Deleveraging wider, das sich im Laufe des Monats trotz der Anzeichen von Bitcoin für eine Stabilisierung über $90.000 beschleunigt hat. Franklin Templetons EZBC und Grayscales Bitcoin Mini Trust lieferten einen gewissen Ausgleich, indem sie Zuflüsse von $10,8 Millionen bzw. $139,6 Millionen verzeichneten. Diese Gewinne waren jedoch unzureichend, um den breiteren Verkaufsdruck auszugleichen. Die gesamten Nettoabflüsse über alle US-Spot-Bitcoin-ETFs erreichten $372,7 Millionen am Dienstag, was den fünften Tag in Folge von Rücknahmen markiert.
Der November hat insgesamt nur drei Tage mit Nettomittelzuflüssen über den gesamten Spot-Bitcoin-ETF-Komplex hervorgebracht. Wenn die aktuellen Trends bis zum Ende des Monats anhalten, könnten die gesamten Abflüsse die im Februar aufgezeichneten $3,56 Milliarden überschreiten, was den November zum schlechtesten Monat für ETF-Flows seit dem Start machen würde, trotz der historischen Tendenz der Anlageklasse, während dieses Zeitraums gut zu performen.
Seit ihrem Debüt im Januar 2024 haben US-Spot-Bitcoin-ETFs etwa $58 Milliarden in kumulierten Nettomittelzuflüssen angezogen. Die Produkte transformierten den institutionellen Zugang zu Kryptowährungen und wurden weithin als Haupttreiber des Bitcoin-Momentums im Jahr 2025 gepriesen.
Most ETF Buyers Now Underwater or Flat
The timing of the outflows has created an uncomfortable reality for many institutional investors. Bitcoin has dropped nearly 30% from its early October record above $126,000, falling below $90,000 earlier this week for the first time in seven months before recovering slightly.
That decline has pushed most 2025 institutional buyers into the red for the first time. Research cited by analysts suggests the average cost basis for ETF investors sits near $89,600 to $90,146, meaning a substantial portion of holders are now either underwater or barely profitable.
Bianco highlighted the precarious positioning in recent commentary, noting that the $59 billion that has flowed into the first ten spot Bitcoin ETFs now carries unrealized profits of only around $2.94 billion, or 4.7%. He argued that had the same capital remained in a money market fund over the past 22 months, it would have generated larger unrealized gains.
The thin cushion raises concerns about potential cascading redemptions if Bitcoin fails to hold current levels. Analysts warn that if ETF participants shift to sustained net selling, market liquidity could deteriorate rapidly.
Institutional Recalibration, Not Capitulation
Despite the scale of the outflows, some market observers argue the redemptions reflect portfolio rebalancing rather than a fundamental loss of faith in Bitcoin.
Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research, characterized the record withdrawals as a signal of institutional recalibration. Big allocators are trimming risk and testing entry points until macroeconomic signals clarify, he said. When conditions improve, "risk-on appetite and allocation will quickly return."
The outflows coincide with broader uncertainty across financial markets. The extended U.S. government shutdown has reduced liquidity, while fading expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut have pressured risk assets broadly. The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns less than a 50% probability to a 25 basis point cut next month.
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have been closely tracking macroeconomic sentiment, behaving more like risk-correlated equities than the uncorrelated stores of value their proponents once envisioned.
Options Market Signals Defensive Positioning
The institutional anxiety is visible beyond ETF flows. Options traders have moved aggressively to hedge against further downside, with the cost of protective puts reaching multi-month highs relative to calls.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, noted a growing number of market participants are buying protection against Bitcoin falling to $80,000 by late December. The 250-day put-call skew for IBIT options has surged to 3.1%, its highest level in seven months, according to MarketChameleon data.
The bearish positioning suggests that even as some funds reduce exposure through redemptions, others are preparing for the possibility of extended weakness.
IBIT Remains Dominant Despite Headwinds
The recent outflows have not materially dented IBIT's dominant position in the ETF landscape. The fund still holds approximately $72.76 billion in net assets, making it the largest spot Bitcoin ETF globally by a wide margin.
IBIT's share price has fallen roughly 16% to around $52, its lowest level since April. However, the fund attracted approximately $26 billion in inflows this year prior to the November reversal, and its assets under management dwarf those of competitors.
The fund's scale makes its flows particularly influential for market sentiment. Large single-day redemptions can ripple across the spot market as ETF managers sell underlying Bitcoin to meet withdrawal demands.
Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone, told Bloomberg that ETF outflows combined with long-term holder sales have tightened market liquidity, pushing short-term Bitcoin prices lower and highlighting weakening market confidence.
Broader Market Remains Fragile
The ETF exodus reflects a broader fragility in crypto markets. Digital asset investment products recorded $2 billion in outflows last week alone, the third consecutive week of withdrawals, bringing the three-week total to $3.2 billion.
Spot Ethereum ETFs have followed a similar pattern. BlackRock's ETHA recorded $165 million in outflows on Tuesday, while the broader Ethereum ETF complex has seen over $900 million in redemptions during the recent losing streak.
Some altcoin products have shown resilience. Spot Solana ETFs have extended their positive flow streak to 16 days, accumulating $420 million in inflows even as Bitcoin and Ethereum products bleed.
Analysts suggest the pattern reflects a maturing yet risk-averse market where investors are differentiating between assets rather than treating all crypto as a single trade. However, without a clear catalyst to reverse sentiment, the near-term outlook remains uncertain.
Bitcoin traded near $91,400 on Wednesday morning, up slightly from its weekly lows but still down roughly 30% from its October peak. All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve's December meeting and incoming economic data for signals that could shift institutional positioning in either direction.