Bitcoin (BTC) is testing its 200-day moving average near $82,500 as a rare on-chain golden cross hints at a possible trend reversal after months of pressure.
Golden Cross Returns to Bitcoin
A bullish crossover is forming between Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value ratio and its 200-day exponential moving average, CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 flagged over the weekend.
The analyst called the pending cross "a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator," according to Cointelegraph. It would be the first such crossover since 2023.
Bitcoin is currently changing hands near $80,860 after briefly tagging $82,000 on Sunday before sellers stepped in. The 200-day moving average has rejected price on each approach over the past two weeks.
A clean break above $82,500 would invalidate the multi-month downtrend, while a rejection could send Bitcoin sliding back toward $50,000, analysts warn.
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What Analysts Are Saying
History gives the signal weight. The previous MVRV golden cross, formed shortly after the November 2022 cycle bottom, preceded a 90% rally from $16,300 to $31,000 in early 2023.
A second crossover in September 2023 was followed by a roughly 400% advance that carried Bitcoin to its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
Analyst Shib Spain noted that Bitcoin recently broke above a multi-month downtrend line on the weekly chart, a move reinforced by a bullish MACD crossover. Another trader known as Moustache pointed to the monthly RSI bouncing off long-term support, writing that "prices will go much, much higher."
Glassnode data adds another layer. The short-term holder cost basis shows a heated band at $92,000 and an overheated band at $104,000, leaving room before the market reaches historically stretched territory.
Bitcoin's Recent Price Path
The MVRV reading lands during a turbulent stretch. Bitcoin opened May at $78,178 before climbing through the first half of the month, with Monday's open of $82,164 marking the strongest start to a session since late January.
The token then retreated below $81,000 after Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was on "massive life support," prompting investors to trim risk exposure.
Going back further, Bitcoin set its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 before sliding through the winter and bottoming in the high $60,000s. Jerome Powell's outgoing Fed term and a fresh CPI print this week sit alongside the chart setup as fresh tests of the recovery.
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