Over $3 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options contracts are set to expire today, introducing a wave of uncertainty across the crypto markets as traders brace for potentially significant price swings. This high-stakes expiry event comes at a moment of sensitive global macroeconomic developments and elevated geopolitical tension, particularly between the United States and China.
The expiry coincides with notable bearish sentiment reflected in options data, a market structure that may act as a magnet for prices to converge toward lower “max pain” levels - $94,000 for Bitcoin and $1,850 for Ethereum. This divergence between current spot prices and options consensus strike zones sets the stage for a weekend that may either confirm a breakdown in sentiment or ignite a sharp counter-move, depending on external catalysts.
As of May 10, crypto derivatives platform Deribit reports that approximately $2.65 billion in Bitcoin options and $364 million in Ethereum options will expire. These contracts represent not just financial bets, but strategic positions reflecting institutional and retail sentiment on where the market is headed.
For Bitcoin, a total of 25,925 contracts are expiring with the max pain price - the strike price at which most options buyers lose money -sitting at $94,000, well below the current market price of approximately $102,570. Ethereum’s expiry involves 164,591 contracts and a max pain point of $1,850, also trailing the prevailing market price of roughly $2,030.
Crucially, both BTC and ETH options show put-to-call ratios above 1-1.05 for Bitcoin and 1.43 for Ethereum - indicating that traders have taken on more downside protection than upside exposure. This reflects a market skewed towards caution, even as headline prices remain elevated.
Why Max Pain Levels Matter
The concept of max pain in options markets is used to estimate where prices might gravitate toward by the time of expiry. The theory holds that, as expiry approaches, price tends to drift toward the level that causes the most loss for the greatest number of option holders, thereby minimizing payouts from sellers (often institutional desks).
This gravitational pull doesn’t always hold, particularly in high-volatility environments, but it is often a useful signal of where the market expects short-term price pressure. In this case, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading well above their respective max pain levels, which could lead to either:
- A short-term correction, as bearish pressure from expiring options pushes prices downward, or
- A relief rally, if sentiment shifts due to unexpected macro catalysts, squeezing short positions.
Either outcome may trigger increased spot volatility, especially over the weekend when traditional markets are closed and liquidity typically thins out.
Options Market Structure Shows Bearish Bias
The distribution of open interest across strike prices offers additional insights. Charts of BTC open interest show a concentration of contracts around the $93,000 to $100,000 range, with relatively fewer positions at higher levels. This cluster suggests that a large number of market participants are hedging against downside risk or speculating on pullbacks.
Ethereum’s option structure is similarly skewed. The high put-to-call ratio signals that traders expect or are at least preparing for ETH to drop below its current trading range. This is supported by the clustering of Ethereum open interest at sub-$1,900 levels.
The lack of strong bullish positioning near or above spot prices indicates caution, not confidence - underscoring the risk of a price reversion toward max pain zones as options settle.
Geopolitical Risk Looms Over the Weekend
While technical and structural indicators point to heightened short-term volatility, the broader market is also reacting to a delicate diplomatic backdrop. Over the weekend, U.S. and Chinese trade envoys are scheduled to meet in Switzerland, marking the first formal talks since the Trump administration escalated tariffs on Chinese imports earlier this year.
Tensions have remained high, with China condemning what it calls unilateral, coercive U.S. trade actions. The Chinese embassy in Washington recently issued a sharp statement warning that continued pressure tactics would erode any foundation for meaningful dialogue. “Saying one thing while doing another... will not work with China,” the statement read.
No major concessions are expected from either side ahead of the talks. If the meeting ends without diplomatic progress - or worse, escalates existing tensions - it could spark risk-off sentiment across global markets, including crypto.
Bitcoin has historically responded to geopolitical shocks in a mixed manner. While often referred to as a digital hedge, its behavior during real-world crises is inconsistent and depends heavily on liquidity conditions and investor positioning.
Macro Backdrop Adds to Uncertainty
This weekend’s geopolitical drama also comes amid critical macroeconomic inflection points. The U.S. will release new Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on May 13, alongside federal budget figures expected on May 12. These indicators will provide insight into inflation trends and government spending - key factors that influence risk appetite in both traditional and crypto markets.
Should inflation come in hotter than expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve may be pressured to hold off on future rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and weighing on Bitcoin. Conversely, cooling inflation could support the “Fed pivot” narrative that has helped buoy BTC throughout 2025.
Bond yields, currently under pressure, also factor in. A further decline in yields could support non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, but any reversal might prompt a retracement in BTC as institutional capital rebalances toward treasuries.
Institutional Positioning and ETF Inflows
Despite the options market’s apparent caution, underlying spot data shows continued institutional accumulation. Over the past week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows totaling $1.8 billion, indicating that some investors view pullbacks as buying opportunities rather than warning signs.
This accumulation trend has been strongest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF, both of which continue to gain assets under management (AUM) at the expense of offshore crypto products. The presence of consistent ETF inflows provides a buffer against aggressive downside, even as short-term options markets flash red.
Moreover, derivatives volumes - while elevated - are not yet at euphoric extremes, suggesting that there may be room for either further consolidation or a reversal, depending on the weekend’s macro and political developments.
Scenarios for Bitcoin and Ethereum
Given the confluence of factors - from options expiry and geopolitical risk to macroeconomic uncertainty - several scenarios could unfold over the next 72 hours:
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Bearish Reversion If weekend talks between the U.S. and China deteriorate, and if risk assets sell off in anticipation of hawkish inflation data, Bitcoin and Ethereum could retrace toward their max pain levels. For BTC, this means a potential move down to the $94,000–$96,000 range.
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Rangebound Consolidation If the macro narrative remains neutral and no major shocks occur, BTC and ETH may drift sideways near current levels as the market digests expired positions and awaits clearer signals from next week’s data releases.
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Short Squeeze Rally Should diplomatic talks surprise to the upside, or if weekend volume remains thin, BTC could squeeze higher as bears unwind positions. A decisive break above $105,000 for Bitcoin and $2,100 for Ethereum would invalidate current bearish skew and set up a new leg higher.
Each of these outcomes depends not just on technical setups, but on the broader interplay between traditional and digital markets - a dynamic increasingly important as crypto continues to integrate with global capital flows.
Final thoughts
The expiration of over $3 billion in BTC and ETH options represents more than just a monthly financial event - it’s a flashpoint for short-term sentiment, volatility, and directional bias in a market already navigating complex macro currents.
With institutional flows showing strength but derivatives data skewed to the downside, Bitcoin and Ethereum are entering a critical weekend. External catalysts - from CPI data to geopolitical negotiations - will determine whether the crypto market finds stability above $100,000 for BTC, or reverts toward max pain territory.
For now, traders are watching the clock, the charts, and the headlines - knowing that the resolution of this volatility window could define the next major move in digital assets.