Bitcoin surged past the $106,000 threshold on Monday morning, November 10, marking a dramatic 4.5% recovery after tumbling below the psychologically important $100,000 level just days earlier. The rally came as cryptocurrency markets absorbed a confluence of political and economic developments, including President Donald Trump's announcement of a proposed $2,000 "tariff dividend" for Americans and the U.S. Senate's advancement of a funding deal to end the nation's longest-ever government shutdown.
According to Coinpedia market data, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $106,333 as of Monday morning, having rebounded from lows near $99,966 reached on November 4. The recovery represents a significant shift in market sentiment following what analysts have termed "Red October"—Bitcoin's first negative October performance in six years.
The primary catalyst for Bitcoin's latest rally appears to be a combination of political developments that have reduced uncertainty in broader financial markets. On Sunday, November 9, President Trump announced via his Truth Social platform that Americans would receive "a dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!)" generated from tariff revenue.
The announcement came as Trump defended his aggressive tariff policies amid a Supreme Court challenge to his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later clarified on ABC's "This Week" that the dividend "could come in lots of forms", including tax cuts on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits already included in recent legislation.
Market analysts suggest the proposal, which could inject an estimated $300 billion into the economy if fully implemented, has reignited speculation about potential liquidity inflows reminiscent of the 2020 stimulus era—though on a smaller scale. However, experts note that executing such a plan would require congressional approval and could increase government debt issuance.
Shutdown Resolution Boosts Risk Appetite
Simultaneously, cryptocurrency markets rallied on news that the Senate had advanced a critical funding measure late Sunday evening with exactly 60 votes—the minimum needed—signaling an imminent end to the 40-day government shutdown that began October 1. Eight Democratic senators broke with party leadership to support the deal, which includes a continuing resolution through January 31 and funding packages for several key agencies.
The shutdown, which furloughed approximately 900,000 federal workers and disrupted services ranging from SNAP food assistance to air traffic control, had weighed on market sentiment throughout November. The prospect of its resolution has improved risk appetite across asset classes, with Bitcoin—often trading as a risk-on asset—benefiting from the shift.
"Bitcoin jumped as the U.S. Senate passed a bill ending the government shutdown, and MicroStrategy made another big purchase, reversing oversold technicals," noted Coinpedia's Monday analysis. The combination of reduced political uncertainty and institutional accumulation created favorable conditions for the cryptocurrency's recovery.
Volatility Patterns Signal Market Transition
Despite Monday's rally, Bitcoin remains in a volatile trading environment. The cryptocurrency is still down approximately 8% over the past two weeks after reaching an all-time high above $109,000 in early October, according to Amberdata's market intelligence.
Market structure suggests Bitcoin is navigating what analysts describe as a "liquidity-testing phase," where short-term traders drive rapid price swings while longer-term holders maintain positions. This pattern typically emerges during periods of heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic and political developments.
Technical indicators show Bitcoin has reclaimed the $105,000 support level and broken through horizontal resistance near $105,834. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory above 65, suggesting potential for near-term consolidation or pullback.
The next major resistance sits at $107,588, with further targets at $109,208 and $112,188. A failure to maintain support above $105,000 could trigger a retest of the $102,000 Fibonacci retracement level.
Institutional Activity Continues Unabated
Supporting the market's recovery, institutional accumulation has continued through the recent volatility. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has maintained its aggressive acquisition strategy despite recent market turbulence. The company holds over 640,000 BTC as of late November, having recently raised $715 million through a new preferred stock offering to fund additional purchases.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have shown signs of stabilization after experiencing sustained outflows throughout October. According to FinanceFeeds reporting, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a six-day outflow streak with $240 million in new investments, led by BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC.
The institutional infrastructure supporting Bitcoin has matured significantly compared to previous market cycles. BlackRock analysis notes that while Bitcoin's annualized volatility remains around 54%—substantially higher than gold at 15.1% or global equities at 10.5%—the asset has demonstrated increasing correlation with traditional market dynamics as institutional participation has grown.
Final thougths
Looking ahead, Bitcoin's trajectory will likely depend on several factors: the final resolution of the government shutdown, implementation details of any tariff dividend proposal, and continued institutional capital flows. Analysts at Decrypt suggest that if Bitcoin maintains its post-halving pattern, "a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach."
However, near-term risks persist. The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 29, indicating "extreme fear" among market participants. This suggests that while short-term rallies are possible, broader market confidence has not fully recovered from November's downturn.
For the rally to sustain momentum, Bitcoin will need to decisively break above $108,000 and demonstrate the ability to hold gains amid potentially volatile trading conditions. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether November's recovery represents a genuine trend reversal or merely a temporary relief rally in an ongoing correction phase.
As cryptocurrency markets continue to evolve and gain mainstream acceptance, the interplay between political developments, institutional adoption, and traditional market forces will likely remain central to Bitcoin's price discovery process. For now, traders and investors are watching key support and resistance levels closely while monitoring developments in Washington for further clarity on economic policy direction.