Bitcoin is under pressure after failing to break above the $120,000 threshold and slipping below $117,500 following the Wall Street open. Major holders appear to be taking profits, while short-term investors’ cost basis levels are emerging as critical zones for potential support.
Analysts warn that a renewed slide toward $110,000 could be imminent if momentum falters.
Bitcoin briefly reached ~$119,000 earlier in the day but reversed sharply, retreating beneath its daily open and settling around $117,500. The pullback coincided with reported sell-offs from high-profile institutional participants. One notable firm flagged by traders was Galaxy Digital, though specifics around the transaction volume were not disclosed
Crypto commentators highlighted bearish divergence patterns and warned retail expectations of further downside. Notable trader ‘Roman’ pointed to potential downside targets near $108,000, citing bearish market structure shifts.
On-chain analytics firm Material Indicators flagged concentration of sell orders around $118,000 and $116,750. They cautioned that a break below these levels could swiftly expose the $110K range to renewed downward pressure.
Elsewhere, trader Credible Crypto observed a "triple tap" struggle near resistance levels, warning that sustained weakness may prompt reversal .
Macro Signals Mixed Amid Bullish Underpinnings
Despite price weakness, broader macro data remained constructive. U.S. job openings came in slightly below forecasts, signaling a steady economy without overheating. Consumer confidence reports surprised to the upside, suggesting renewed investor optimism for risk-driven assets like BTC.
CryptoQuant, however, indicated that realized net profits remain orderly and unlike previous market tops - with no signs of panic selling. Investors are largely holding conviction, not triggering mass profit-taking yet
An important factor supporting Bitcoin’s near-term outlook are on-chain realized price levels tied to short-term holders. Data from CryptoQuant suggest that the cost basis of investors holding BTC under 155 days is clustering near $115.7K and $105K.
These levels historically act as areas where buyers defend breakouts during pullbacks. Even though price is deteriorating, the presence of these tested support zones keeps the outlook cautiously constructive unless broken.
CryptoQuant indicators such as the Investor Behavior Index (IBCI) have shifted into "distribution territory," signaling a late-stage rally environment rather than speculative excess.
But activity remains measured - all components like Puell Multiple and SOPR remain moderate, suggesting a cautious market rather than an overheated one.
Broader On-Chain Sentiment: Distribution, Not Euphoria
As inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs remain strong, with nearly $20 billion YTD, institutional conviction appears firm. However, with volume compression and ETF flows steadying, price breakout across key resistance - particularly over $120K - remains uncertain
A decline beneath $117,400–$116,750 could lead to testing the ~$115K level. If that fails, market focus shifts to $110K and potentially $105K.
While many traders have flagged downside targets between $108K–$110K, others point to a benign consolidation phase.
CryptoQuant noted lack of mass profit-taking, indicating investor conviction remains intact - even as short-term volatility spikes
Long-term on-chain holders are showing accumulation behavior, with realized cap metrics surpassing $18B and matching previous bottom formations from late 2024.
This increased hold duration and cost basis clustering below spot price may limit downside risk and stabilize around the $115K–$105K range.
Final thoughts
Mechanics shaping BTC price in the near term include whale flows, ETF demand, macro data surprises, and on-chain structure dynamics. Key areas to monitor:
- Downtime below $117K increases risk to $115K–$110K
- Breakout above $120K may revive bullish momentum and trigger short squeezes
- Behavioral divergence between institutional accumulation and retail caution
- ETF inflows consistency and macro risk-on/off shifts, especially around inflation data
Bitcoin’s retreat below $117.5K highlights short-term pressure on the market, especially with resistance near $120K remaining intact and whale distribution behavior evident.
Short-term downtrends may accelerate toward $110K unless critical support at ~$115K and cost basis zones hold firm. While broader sentiment - driven by macro indicators and institutional flows - remains cautiously bullish, the current structure calls for vigilance around key levels as investors await directional conviction.