Projections suggest Bitcoin may surge to $92,000 if Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election, according to Bitwise's head of alpha strategies.
On October 22, Jeff Park shared on X that by mapping Bitcoin’s price against Trump’s election odds on the decentralized platform Polymarket and utilizing “merger arb-style probability math,” a significant rise in Bitcoin’s value could follow a Trump victory. Park stated, "I project a Trump victory could push BTC to ~$92,000."
Park's optimistic outlook is shared by many analysts, who also foresee a Trump election win potentially boosting crypto asset prices. Bitcoin entrepreneur Erik Finman expressed to Cointelegraph his belief that Trump's victory could propel Bitcoin to $100,000. Finman noted, "His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board."
Crypto’s dependence on this political event is unprecedented. Republican contender Trump has integrated pro-crypto stances into his 2024 campaign. To appeal to crypto-focused voters, Trump has vowed to transform the U.S. into the "crypto capital of the world" and promised to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler on the first day of his administration.
Despite these promises, skepticism about Trump’s long-term impact on the crypto markets exists. Investor Mark Cuban, who endorses Kamala Harris, suggested that a Trump win might only cause a temporary uptick in crypto markets. Cuban warned that Trump's economic policies, particularly his import tariffs, could be inflationary and dampen Bitcoin’s performance over time.
Currently, Harris leads Trump by 1.8% in national polls, as reported by 538 polls. However, on betting platforms, Trump maintains a notable lead of 18.8% over Harris on Polymarket.