The 2024 presidential election has placed cryptocurrencies in a singular spotlight, thrusting them into the heart of political discourse. Many in the crypto sector are rallying behind former U.S. President and Republican nominee Donald Trump, as his pro-crypto policy pledges are perceived as potential accelerators for Bitcoin.
Opinion polls remain tight, with crypto traders such as Satoshi Flipper asserting that Trump's victory is yet to be factored into the crypto market's dynamics. He contends that a Republican triumph could bolster the ongoing Bitcoin and altcoin bull market. Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have swung in favor of Trump, elevating his victory likelihood to approximately 60%.
This broad divide has raised concerns over potential market manipulation, debated vigorously by prediction market advocates, including Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
Teenage Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman anticipates a pro-crypto shift in the U.S. under Trump's leadership, spurring significant investment influx. Finman asserts that Trump's policies could energize the crypto market, driving extensive growth. Pseudonymous market analyst Crypto Rand sees the Trump administration's non-hostile approach to cryptocurrencies as transformative, positioning the U.S. as a potential leader in the crypto arena.
Nonetheless, skepticism persists. Businessman and "Shark Tank" star Mark Cuban has advocated for more crypto-friendly policies within Kamala Harris's campaign, cautioning that while a Trump win might temporarily inflate crypto markets, long-term impacts could be bearish due to potentially inflationary policies. Trump's promises include the dismissal of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, though experts note procedural constraints might limit this to a demotion. Such moves could lead to an SEC more favorable to crypto, supporting Bitcoin's adoption and paving the way for altcoin ETF approval.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that Trump's appointment of a lenient SEC commissioner could loosen ETF approval processes, potentially elevating altcoin visibility. Trump's ambition to establish the U.S. as the "world capital of crypto" underscores his commitment to developing a crypto advisory council. Critics argue this could remedy the current regulatory disconnect in Congress and the Senate. Finman posits that reduced regulatory barriers under Trump would invigorate the crypto industry, attracting vast investment.
As the election unfolds, implications for decentralized finance (DeFi) and memecoins are substantial, with Trump actively promoting projects like World Liberty Financial (WLFI), integrated with Aave. Ismail notes that Trump, seen as a meme figure, personally holds multiple memecoins.
Broader economic policies from Trump could inadvertently benefit crypto. Finman points to potential cuts in capital gains taxes enhancing investment incentives. Conversely, Cuban argues that tariffs threatened by Trump might elevate inflation, thereby leading to higher interest rates which could stymie crypto growth.
Despite touting crypto-friendly credentials, Trump's past shows a less favorable view of cryptocurrencies. Finman suggests this U-turn signifies adaptability and open-mindedness. Crypto Rand warns that Trump's pivot may be opportunistic, exploiting a significant opportunity to attract support and campaign funds. Yet, Rand acknowledges Trump's astuteness in adapting to emerging trends as intrinsic to successful business acumen.