Bitcoin's recent price action suggests the cryptocurrency may be poised for a significant pullback to the $93,000-$94,000 range, according to on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci, who cited multiple technical indicators supporting a bearish outlook for the world's largest digital asset.
What to Know:
- Bitcoin has struggled to build momentum above $100,000 despite reaching $108,000 earlier this week
- Technical indicators including RSI below 50 and the 50-day moving average signal weakening bullish momentum
- The $95,000 level represents critical resistance that could trigger further selling pressure if breached
Technical Indicators Paint Bearish Picture
The flagship cryptocurrency has maintained its position above the psychological $100,000 level since early May but has failed to capitalize on this milestone. Over recent days, Bitcoin has been confined to a narrow trading range between $103,000 and $106,000, displaying what analysts describe as lackluster price performance.
Kesmeci's analysis, shared on social media platform X on June 21, highlighted several key technical factors supporting his bearish thesis. The Fixed Range Volume Profile Intensive Swap Level stands at approximately $95,000, marking a significant resistance zone where buyer-seller dominance has historically shifted with heavy volume.
This resistance level becomes particularly concerning when combined with Bitcoin's proximity to the 50-day Simple Moving Average. Currently positioned near $105,000, the SMA50 represents the same level Bitcoin appears ready to close below for the second time. Such a breach could accelerate downward momentum, according to Kesmeci's assessment.
The Relative Strength Index adds another layer of concern to the technical picture. Trading below 50 and beneath its 14-day moving average, the RSI indicates a clear loss of bullish momentum. Lower lows forming in the RSI provide additional evidence of seller dominance in the current market environment.
$94,000 Target Backed by Multiple Confluences
Kesmeci's specific target of $94,000 stems from the Value Area Low in the Fixed Range Volume Profile, which points to the $93,000-$94,000 range. This zone could serve as strong support during any potential selloff, offering buyers an opportunity to re-enter the market at favorable levels.
The 200-day Simple Moving Average provides additional confirmation of this bearish scenario. Converging near the $95,000 level, the SMA200 creates a confluence of technical factors that strengthen the case for downward price movement.
Market participants should prepare for potential opportunities around the highlighted support zone, Kesmeci advised. The analyst emphasized that good buying opportunities might emerge if Bitcoin does indeed test these lower levels.
Current market conditions show Bitcoin trading at approximately $101,596, representing a 1.3% decline over the past 24 hours. This recent weakness aligns with the technical deterioration outlined in Kesmeci's analysis.
Market Outlook and Key Levels
The convergence of multiple bearish indicators suggests Bitcoin faces headwinds in the near term. The inability to sustain momentum above $105,000 combined with weakening technical indicators creates a challenging environment for bulls.
Traders and investors will be closely monitoring Bitcoin's ability to hold above the $95,000 resistance-turned-support level. A decisive break below this threshold could accelerate selling pressure and push the cryptocurrency toward Kesmeci's projected target range.
The analyst's methodology incorporates various timeframes and technical tools, lending credibility to the forecast. Volume profile analysis, moving averages, and momentum indicators all point toward potential weakness in Bitcoin's short-term trajectory.
Despite the bearish near-term outlook, the $93,000-$94,000 zone represents what technical analysts consider a high-probability reversal area. This support confluence could provide the foundation for Bitcoin's next significant move higher.
Closing Thoughts
Technical analysis from on-chain analyst Burak Kesmeci indicates Bitcoin may face downward pressure toward the $93,000-$94,000 support zone, with multiple indicators suggesting weakening bullish momentum. The confluence of resistance at $95,000, deteriorating RSI conditions, and proximity to key moving averages creates a challenging environment for Bitcoin bulls in the coming weeks.