Bitcoin selling pressure declined roughly 80% between late November and late December as on-chain data shows weekly realized losses dropped from $2.4 billion to $0.5 billion. The cryptocurrency continues trading below $90,000 after multiple failed breakout attempts since Dec. 14.
What Happened: Realized Losses
Analyst Axel Adler shared a chart tracking Bitcoin realized losses using a seven-day moving average and z-score framework, highlighting the transition from November's capitulation to December's normalization period.
The realized loss z-score surged to between 8.7 and 10.9 on Nov. 21-22, with daily losses exceeding $5 billion.
By comparison, the late-December spike on Dec. 26 reached a z-score near 1.6, with weekly realized losses returning to levels last seen in September and October.
This metric measures the volume of losses realized when coins move, with the z-score identifying stress extremes within the market.
Bitcoin's Net Realized Profit/Loss metric, smoothed using a seven-day moving average, remains in negative territory but improved significantly. The depth of negative net P/L shrank by nearly half during the final week of December.
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Why It Matters: Seller Exhaustion
Adler stated the sharp decline in realized losses points to structural seller exhaustion rather than temporary weakness. He noted that when net realized P/L trends upward toward the zero line, it reflects a transition phase in which forced selling subsides and marginal supply weakens.
Historically, markets stabilize after such conditions, with sustained moves back into positive territory coinciding with early stages of local recoveries.
November appears to have absorbed the majority of weak hands, while December functioned as an absorption and stabilization phase, according to the analysis.
The improvement unfolded without a strong price recovery, suggesting the change stems from seller exhaustion rather than speculative buying. Bitcoin remains locked in consolidation near $87,600, trading below the declining 200-period moving average that acts as dynamic resistance near $89,000-$90,000.
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