Bitcoin's recent market dynamics signal a potential upswing as December 2024 commences. After a volatile end to November, Bitcoin found a temporary trough at $90,796 but soon rebounded by 5.9%, rising above $96,000. Prominent market analyst Ali Martinez suggests that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory, potentially hitting a price point of $140,000.
On November 30, in a widely discussed post, Martinez expressed confidence in Bitcoin's continued strong performance as the year wraps up. Bitcoin has garnered substantial attention from investors in the fourth quarter of 2024, posting impressive gains—10.76% in October, followed by 37.99% in November. Key drivers for this bullish momentum include a recent cut in the Federal Reserve's interest rate, Donald Trump’s unexpected electoral win, and a surge in market inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Historically, December has shown mixed outcomes for Bitcoin, with average returns of 5.45% and median returns dipping to -3.59% over the past eleven years. However, Martinez points out that in years with U.S. Presidential elections, December has typically seen Bitcoin surge, noting increases of 30.80% in 2016 and 46.92% in 2020.
Should Bitcoin repeat these historical bull cycles, it could approach or surpass a valuation of $125,000 to $140,000 by the end of 2024. Technical analysis supports this view as the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) remains significantly above the current price. Still, with a relative strength index (RSI) of 75.56, Bitcoin appears overbought, raising caution for sudden price corrections.
In a favorable turn for Bitcoin's market sentiment, a significant withdrawal of over 55,000 Bitcoins—worth $5.34 billion—occurred from crypto exchanges recently. This exodus is seen as a bullish indicator because it suggests a reduced Bitcoin supply on exchanges, alleviating potential selling pressure and indicating investor confidence in near-term price appreciation. Yet, the current trading situation reflects some volatility.
Trading at $96,203, Bitcoin has slipped by 0.43% over the last day. Notably, it faces minor resistance at $97,300. Given strong market sentiment, it is largely expected that Bitcoin will surpass the $100,000 mark very soon.
However, BTC's daily trading volume has seen a decline, falling by 41.27% to $31.98 billion. This dip suggests reduced trader activity and general market engagement. The market awaits to see if these fluctuations pave the way for a sustained rally or if caution is warranted.