Bitcoin will break past its recent all-time high more rapidly than market consensus suggests, even as U.S. economic conditions remain unstable, according to a prominent cryptocurrency analyst. Real Vision's chief crypto analyst believes the digital currency could reach new record levels before the end of the second quarter despite ongoing concerns about tariffs and recession possibilities.
What to Know:
- Bitcoin currently trades at $85,880, down 3.16% over the past month
- Analyst forecasts Bitcoin could reach between $102,000 and $123,000 by June 1
- Financial conditions have eased, with the U.S. dollar experiencing its third-largest three-day decline since 2015
Market Indicators Point to Rapid Recovery
"The market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge – potentially hitting new all-time highs before Q2 is out," Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts told Cointelegraph.
His assessment contradicts current market sentiment following Bitcoin's fall below $100,000 on February 2, a decline many traders attributed to President Donald Trump's newly imposed tariffs and uncertainty surrounding U.S. interest rates.
Coutts remains optimistic regardless of whether clarity emerges on Trump's tariff policies or if recession concerns persist. The analyst's bullish outlook stems from several key factors, including easing financial conditions, a weakening U.S. dollar, and increased liquidity measures from the People's Bank of China implemented since early 2025.
"Financial conditions have eased dramatically this month, highlighted by the U.S. dollar's third-largest three-day decline since 2015 and significant drops in rates and Treasury bond volatility," he explained. "Liquidity remains central to investing in all asset classes."
Coutts referenced his March 7 social media post on X, where he noted that recent movements in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) make it difficult to be "anything but bullish" about Bitcoin when viewed through a "historical lens." Based on previous DXY performance patterns, his June 1 forecast for Bitcoin ranges from a conservative $102,000 to an optimistic $123,000. The higher target would represent a 13% gain over Bitcoin's current all-time high of $109,000, which it reached on January 20.
Conflicting Market Signals Emerge
BlackRock's head of digital assets, Robbie Mitchnick, recently shared a complementary view, suggesting that Bitcoin would likely thrive in a recessionary macroeconomic environment. "I don't know if we'll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin," Mitchnick stated in a March 19 interview with Yahoo Finance.
This optimism comes despite Bitcoin currently experiencing what analysts at CryptoQuant describe as its "least bullish conditions" since January 2023.
The firm's Bull Score Index sits at 20, its lowest point in over two years, signaling a weak market with limited potential for an immediate strong rally.
According to CryptoQuant's historical analysis, if the score remains below 40 for an extended period, it could indicate continued bearish market conditions similar to previous bear market phases. This assessment seemingly contradicts the positive outlook presented by Coutts and Mitchnick, highlighting the divided expert opinions regarding Bitcoin's short-term trajectory.
Current data shows Bitcoin trading at $85,880, reflecting a 3.16% decline over the past month. This represents a significant drop from its January peak, when the cryptocurrency reached its all-time high of $109,000.
Outlook Remains Cautiously Optimistic
Despite mixed signals and current market hesitation, analysts like Coutts maintain that macroeconomic conditions are aligning favorably for Bitcoin. The combination of easing financial conditions, declining dollar strength, and increased global liquidity could potentially provide the necessary momentum for Bitcoin to surpass its previous record earlier than most market participants anticipate.
The cryptocurrency's path forward will likely depend on how global economic factors evolve in coming months, particularly regarding U.S. monetary policy, potential recession indicators, and international liquidity conditions.