Bitcoin is gaining traction for a potential rally toward $100,000, as it begins to decouple from both traditional markets and gold—a shift gaining attention after U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariff announcement on April 2.
Despite initial volatility, Bitcoin has quickly rebounded, signaling renewed investor confidence and reigniting bullish sentiment. Following a 3% drop to around $82,500 after the tariff news, Bitcoin bounced back strongly by over 4.5%, reaching above $84,700.
Meanwhile, gold, which briefly hit an all-time high of $3,167, has since dropped 4.8%. The S&P 500 also suffered a sharp decline, falling more than 10% this week. This growing divergence has reinforced the “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” thesis, drawing parallels to similar market behavior observed between late 2018 and mid-2019.
In past cycles, gold often moved first, with Bitcoin lagging behind before staging a significant breakout. If this pattern holds, analysts believe Bitcoin could be poised for a major rally—potentially breaching the $100,000 mark in the near future. Market watchers suggest that a momentum shift from gold to Bitcoin could usher in a new phase of outperformance for the digital asset.
However, not all technical signals point to immediate gains. The Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio is flashing a cautionary pattern reminiscent of the 2021 cycle.
The pair is currently testing its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), a level that previously preceded a sharp correction. If the fractal repeats, Bitcoin could drop to around $65,000—or even lower toward $20,000—if macroeconomic pressures persist and support breaks down.
Macroeconomic risks are adding further complexity. Trump’s tariff policies have stirred fears of a broader trade conflict that could push the U.S. economy into recession. Historically, Bitcoin and other risk assets struggle during economic downturns, which could limit the cryptocurrency’s upside in the short term.
Additional headwinds came on April 4, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dismissed hopes for imminent interest rate cuts, citing uneven progress on inflation. Although bond markets still anticipate rate reductions by September, a prolonged high-rate environment could dampen Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.
For now, the market is caught between bullish technical narratives and bearish macroeconomic realities. While Bitcoin’s divergence from gold and equities is encouraging for bulls, traders remain cautious, closely watching both the BTC/XAU ratio and the broader economic landscape.