In recent analyses, Glassnode's lead analyst James Check predicts that Bitcoin's price trajectory could mirror the 2016 to 2017 cycle and potentially climb to a top range between $120,000 and $150,000. Speaking on the Theya podcast, Check described this range as a "topping cloud" for Bitcoin, suggesting that prices above this level may not be sustainable.
Bitcoin, which is currently trading at $104,120, faces a challenging path to maintaining prices around $150,000, according to Check. He noted that surpassing the $150,000 mark would likely result in a short-lived peak, driven by speculative activity.
Short-term holders could see an average profit of 66%, while long-term holders might gain an impressive 509% if this level is reached.
Recent data indicates that short-term Bitcoin investors have paid an average of $90,349 per Bitcoin, with long-term holders having entered at an average of $24,627. The potential high of $150,000 would represent significant profitability for both groups.
Check pointed out that there are notable similarities between the current cycle and the 2016-2017 period. He highlighted that back then, the market was primarily spot-driven, lacking significant derivatives or stablecoins, with consolidation occurring before a dramatic price increase in late 2017.
If Bitcoin adheres to this historical pattern, it may continue consolidating until mid-year, featuring moderate rallies followed by corrections. Other market analysts share varied views on Bitcoin’s trajectory, with some predicting a potential bull market in early 2025, though they expect the peak to occur later that year.
In a January 23 social media post, an anonymous trader, Bitquant, suggested that dismissing further gains by claiming Bitcoin has reached its peak could lead to missed opportunities. Another trader, Braver, postulates that a substantial crypto bull run might be expected in the first quarter of 2025, but anticipates that the true market top will occur in the fourth quarter.
Furthermore, crypto trader Mags suggested that Bitcoin could set another record high within 230 to 330 days, which implies a potential peak between July and October. Despite varying opinions, the consensus remains that every investment decision requires careful research, considering inherent market risks.
This analysis does not constitute financial advice. Investors are encouraged to conduct their own research when considering market activities.