Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $80,000 after a 23% weekly rally, but several analysts still expect a sharp reversal that could send prices toward $40,000.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin rallied 23% and briefly crossed $81,000, but bearish forecasts still extend as low as $40,000.
- RSI at 83 and a Fear and Greed reading of 74 are reinforcing short-term correction concerns.
- Niels says a weekly close above $83,000 would invalidate his remaining bearish scenario.
Bitcoin Crash Risk
Bitcoin gained about 23% over the past week and briefly moved above $81,000, CryptoPotato reported Aug. 25, extending a rebound from levels near $60,000 weeks earlier. The move has revived calls that the bear market may be ending, although bearish traders say the rally advanced too quickly.
Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index rose to 83, placing it in extreme overbought territory. The Fear and Greed Index reached 74, its highest level since Oct. 2025, adding another caution signal after the rapid advance.
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Niels Cycle Test
The disagreement centers on whether the rally can survive another support test. AlejandroBTC expects Bitcoin to revisit $68,000 to $70,000 before a possible breakdown that could accelerate liquidations and push the asset toward $40,000.
“This is what I think happens next: Bitcoin tests $68K–70K. We get a small bounce. Then we come back to that zone again, and this time it doesn’t hold. That’s when the panic starts. Liquidations accelerate, sentiment collapses, and I think we go straight toward $40K,” the analyst predicted.
bee also expects a hard rejection rather than a gradual pullback, with one sharp red candle potentially erasing most of the latest gains. Nonzee has argued that a liquidity squeeze drove the rally and could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a bull trap and a decline toward $45,000.
Niels, previously bearish on Bitcoin, set a higher threshold for abandoning the downside case.
A weekly close above $83,000 would signal that the bottom is in and invalidate a forecast for $55,000, he said, adding, “If not, Bitcoin is still following the 4-year cycle, and the macro bottom will happen in October.”
Bitcoin was struggling to remain above $60,000 only weeks ago before surging more than 20% in a week and briefly clearing $81,000. That rapid shift now leaves traders divided over whether the move marks a durable recovery or another volatile bear-market rally.
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