JPMorgan analysts have revised their outlook on Bitcoin’s market performance for the second half of 2025, forecasting that the cryptocurrency is likely to outperform gold as institutional and public-sector adoption accelerates.
In a research note published this week, strategists led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou cited a shift in investor behavior, increased corporate accumulation, and emerging U.S. state-level initiatives supporting Bitcoin as core catalysts behind the expected outperformance.
The analysis frames Bitcoin and gold within a “zero-sum debasement trade” - a framework in which both assets serve as hedges against fiat currency depreciation. While gold led this trade during the early months of 2025, Bitcoin has reversed the trend since mid-April. Over the last three weeks, the analysts noted, Bitcoin has been gaining at gold’s expense, a pattern they anticipate will continue into the second half of the year.
Between February and April 2025, gold prices steadily climbed, benefiting from concerns about dollar debasement, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of further monetary easing in the U.S. However, since April 22, the dynamic has flipped. Gold has declined by nearly 8%, while Bitcoin has rallied 18% over the same period.
This shift is not just visible in spot prices, but also in investment flows. According to JPMorgan, capital has started exiting gold ETFs and entering Bitcoin products, including spot Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year. Futures markets reflect a similar pattern: long positions in gold are decreasing, while Bitcoin derivatives show rising open interest and bullish positioning among institutional traders.
The bank’s view is that the relative rotation between gold and Bitcoin reflects more than short-term price action - it signals that crypto-specific catalysts are gaining influence in broader macro portfolios.
The Corporate Treasury Pivot to Bitcoin
One of the defining trends of 2025 has been a surge in corporate Bitcoin accumulation, particularly among public firms outside the United States. These companies, inspired by the “Bitcoin Treasury Standard” concept, are allocating a portion of their balance sheets to BTC as a hedge against currency volatility, inflation, and sovereign debt risk.
Among the most aggressive actors is Strategy, a multinational firm aiming to raise $84 billion by 2027 specifically for Bitcoin acquisitions. As of mid-May, the company had already reached 32% of that target, according to filings and corporate disclosures.
Another major player is Metaplanet, a Japanese public company that reported its strongest financial quarter to date in Q1 FY2025. The firm has accumulated 6,796 BTC, adding more than 5,000 BTC in the first five months of 2025 alone. Despite a temporary paper loss during Bitcoin’s March correction, Metaplanet reported ¥13.5 billion in unrealized gains by May 12.
Since adopting Bitcoin as its treasury reserve asset, Metaplanet’s net asset value has grown over 103-fold, while its market capitalization has surged 138-fold, indicating how some equity markets are rewarding companies that align with Bitcoin’s monetary thesis.
U.S. State-Level Adoption
Beyond corporate actors, JPMorgan’s analysis highlights a less discussed but increasingly influential development: U.S. state governments beginning to experiment with Bitcoin holdings.
New Hampshire recently authorized up to 5% of its financial reserves to be held in Bitcoin.
Arizona is preparing to launch its own Bitcoin reserve, with officials framing it as a hedge against federal monetary mismanagement and inflation.
Both states have also pledged no new tax hikes in 2025, creating a political environment favorable to alternative asset experiments.
According to JPMorgan, this emerging trend of state-level experimentation may trigger a broader shift: “As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for bitcoin,” the note stated.
The analysts stopped short of forecasting a national-level adoption but acknowledged that these developments “give the asset legitimacy” and “create a foundation for regulated, long-term investment frameworks.”
The “Debasement Trade” and Inflation Uncertainty
The concept of the debasement trade - where investors rotate into hard assets to hedge against fiat currency devaluation - is not new. It gained prominence during the 2020–2021 monetary expansion and has re-emerged amid global debt concerns and slower economic growth in 2025.
However, JPMorgan’s current thesis adds nuance by suggesting that Bitcoin and gold are now competing directly within the same hedge allocation bucket. Rather than serving complementary roles, capital flows increasingly reflect a zero-sum contest - what flows into BTC often comes at gold’s expense, and vice versa.
This framing has implications for portfolio construction in institutional funds. Asset managers who previously treated Bitcoin as a satellite or experimental exposure may now view it as a core hedge alongside - or even in place of - gold, depending on their regulatory constraints and mandate flexibility.
Outlook for H2 2025: Catalysts and Risks
JPMorgan’s report identifies several crypto-specific catalysts that could drive Bitcoin’s performance above gold in the second half of the year:
- Corporate treasury momentum expanding beyond U.S. and Japan
- Potential state-level adoption in more U.S. jurisdictions
- Increased ETF inflows, particularly from institutional allocators
- Improved regulatory clarity under the Trump administration’s deregulatory stance
- Technical upgrades to Bitcoin Layer 2 networks, enhancing usability and settlement speed
However, the analysts also note several downside risks:
- A sharp reversal in monetary policy, such as unexpected rate hikes
- Regulatory overreach, particularly around self-custody or privacy tools
- High volatility leading to temporary liquidity shocks or leverage unwinds
- Gold’s re-entry as a safe haven if geopolitical tensions escalate
Still, JPMorgan maintains a bullish bias toward Bitcoin for the remainder of 2025, arguing that its expanding institutional narrative and emerging adoption mechanisms give it the potential to further decouple from traditional risk assets - and from gold.
Strategic Implications for Investors
If JPMorgan’s thesis holds, the second half of 2025 could mark a turning point in how global capital allocators view Bitcoin. What began as a retail-driven asset has evolved into a programmable, scarce instrument now being held by corporations, traded via ETFs, and - potentially - held by U.S. state treasuries.
For asset managers, the decision may no longer be whether to hold Bitcoin, but how to size it, how to custody it, and how to integrate it into broader portfolio strategies. For governments, the question may shift from ignoring Bitcoin to actively assessing its role in macroeconomic policy, taxation, and reserves.
And for gold, the decades-long reign as the default store of value may face its most credible challenge yet - from a digital, permissionless rival born in the ashes of the last financial crisis.