Digital assets could reach a combined market capitalization of $28 trillion by 2030, driven primarily by Bitcoin (BTC) adoption, the expansion of tokenized real-world assets, and the growth of decentralized finance applications, according to ARK Invest.
ARK’s analysis frames the next phase of crypto market growth as a capital formation story rather than a speculative cycle, with value increasingly anchored to institutional ownership, on-chain financial infrastructure, and settlement efficiency.
Bitcoin As The Largest Contributor
Bitcoin represents the single largest component of ARK’s digital asset valuation framework.
The report estimates Bitcoin alone could account for $20 trillion of total market value by 2030 under ARK’s base case
ARK notes that Bitcoin supply is structurally constrained at 21 million coins, with more than 94% already mined.
The report highlights that U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and public companies together now hold roughly 12% of circulating supply, up from approximately 9% one year earlier
Bitcoin’s increasing presence in institutional portfolios has coincided with declining volatility.
ARK reports that Bitcoin’s annualized volatility fell below 50% in 2025, compared with levels exceeding 80% during earlier adoption phases
Tokenization Expanding On-Chain Asset Value
ARK identifies tokenized assets as the second-largest contributor to digital asset market capitalization growth.
The report estimates that tokenized financial assets could represent $7 trillion in on-chain value by 2030, including stablecoins, tokenized deposits, and blockchain-based financial contracts
Stablecoins alone processed over $33 trillion in transaction volume in 2025, exceeding combined volumes of Visa and Mastercard networks, according to data cited in the report.
ARK states that tokenization reduces settlement times from days to minutes, lowering capital costs and increasing market efficiency.
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DeFi Apps Add Incremental Market Value
Decentralized finance contributes the remaining portion of ARK’s $28 trillion estimate.
The report shows DeFi protocols securing more than $120 billion in total value locked by the end of 2025, up from $55 billion two years earlier.
ARK emphasizes that DeFi growth is increasingly tied to lending, settlement, and asset-backed applications rather than speculative trading.
Bitcoin-linked DeFi protocols and Layer-2 networks account for a growing share of this activity, according to the report.
Market Structure Shifts Underpin Valuation
ARK further stated that digital asset market capitalization growth is being driven by measurable adoption metrics rather than new token issuance.
The report highlights that Bitcoin ownership has expanded to over 400 million users globally, while on-chain transaction settlement continues to absorb functions traditionally handled by banks and clearing houses.
As a result, ARK frames the $28 trillion figure as a reflection of digital assets absorbing portions of global monetary value, capital markets infrastructure, and financial services activity already measured in tens of trillions of dollars.
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