Industry experts are increasingly questioning whether Bitcoin's historically predictable four-year market cycles are coming to an end as institutional adoption accelerates and corporate treasuries accumulate nearly one million coins.
What to Know:
- Top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies now hold almost one million Bitcoin, potentially disrupting traditional market cycles
- Experts remain divided, with some arguing institutional adoption has ended the pattern while others maintain cycles remain intact
- Bitcoin's supply dynamics have shifted significantly, with 95% already mined and trading float now dependent on institutional buying rather than halving events
Institutional Holdings Challenge Traditional Patterns
The debate centers on whether institutional participation has fundamentally altered Bitcoin's market structure. Author and investor Jason Williams highlighted the scale of corporate adoption in a Sunday post on X, noting that the top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies collectively hold almost one million Bitcoin. "This is why the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over," Williams stated.
Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, expressed similar views in comments published Friday by CNBC. Hougan acknowledged the cycle isn't "officially over until we see positive returns in 2026," but predicted that outcome. "I think the four-year cycle is over," he said, reinforcing his July statements.
Bitcoin's price patterns have historically followed a predictable sequence. Peak prices occurred in the year following each halving event - 2013, 2017, and 2021. The next peak was expected in 2025 under the traditional model.
Market Structure Evolution Drives Debate
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, agreed the cycles appear finished in a Monday X post. He argued Bitcoin halvings have become "immaterial to trading float" because 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. Current supply dynamics depend on "buying out OGs," while demand comes from "the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies."
Martin Burgherr, chief clients officer at Sygnum Bank, told Cointelegraph that while the four-year halving cycle remains "a useful reference point," it no longer serves as "the sole driver of market behavior." Macroeconomic conditions, institutional capital flows, regulatory developments and ETF adoption have gained equal influence as the market matures.
"In practice, the four-year framework is becoming one of several inputs rather than the market's central script," Burgherr explained.
Skeptics Maintain Cycle Integrity
Not all analysts accept the cycle's demise. Crypto analyst "CRYPTO₿IRB" told his 715,000 X followers Sunday that claims about the four-year cycle's end are "wrong." The analyst argued ETFs have actually strengthened crypto's four-year cycles because traditional finance operates on four-year presidential cycles, increasing "crypto-tradfi correlation."
"Not to mention four-year halving cycles which simply just can't be cancelled as they're mathematically programmed," the analyst added.
Seamus Rocca, Xapo Bank CEO, maintained in July that four-year cycles remain intact despite institutional participation. Rocca disputed the notion that institutional presence eliminates Bitcoin's cyclical nature. "So many people are saying, 'Oh, the institutions are here, and, therefore, the cyclical sort of nature of Bitcoin is dead.' I'm not sure I agree with that," he said.
Rocca emphasized that prolonged bear market risks persist under traditional cycle patterns.
Understanding Key Terms
Bitcoin halving refers to the programmed reduction in new Bitcoin supply every four years, cutting mining rewards in half. This mechanism was designed to control inflation and has historically preceded major price increases. ETPs, or Exchange-Traded Products, allow traditional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through regulated investment vehicles. Corporate treasury adoption involves companies holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset rather than traditional cash equivalents.
Closing Thoughts
The cryptocurrency industry faces a fundamental question about Bitcoin's future price behavior as institutional adoption reaches unprecedented levels. Whether the traditional four-year cycle survives or evolves will likely become clearer by 2026, when the next expected peak period arrives under historical patterns.