Dogecoin Article Draft

Title Variants:

1. Dogecoin Plunges to Multi-Month Lows as Exchange Flows Signal Potential Market Bottom

2. DOGE Crashes Below $0.15 Support, But Whale Accumulation and Exchange Flows Point to Relief Rally

3. Dogecoin Price Breakdown: Exchange Flows Turn Bullish for First Time in 6 Months Amid ETF Hopes

4. Dogecoin Tests Critical Support as $770M Whale Buying and Positive Exchange Flows Emerge

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Dogecoin drops 7% to $0.149 as major support collapses, but whale accumulation and positive exchange flows signal potential bottom ahead of ETF decisions.

Article:

Dogecoin Breaks Critical Support as Exchange Flows Flash First Bullish Signal in Six Months

Dogecoin plummeted to its lowest level in months as selling pressure shattered a key support zone, yet on-chain data suggests the meme coin's largest investors are positioning for a potential reversal just as multiple ETF approvals loom on the horizon.

The original meme cryptocurrency dropped 7.42% in a 24-hour session this week, collapsing from $0.160 to $0.149 and breaking decisively through the critical $0.155 support level that had anchored weeks of consolidation. Trading volume surged more than 18% above weekly averages, suggesting institutional participation rather than pure retail capitulation drove the move.

The breakdown came as broader crypto markets buckled under the weight of Bitcoin's first "death cross" since 2022, with the flagship cryptocurrency falling below $90,000 and erasing all of its 2025 gains. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index collapsed to 10, its lowest reading since the 2022 bear market, signaling extreme fear across the digital asset landscape.

Yet beneath the surface carnage, a potentially significant structural shift is unfolding in Dogecoin's market dynamics.

Exchange Flows Flip Positive in Historic Reversal

For the first time in approximately six months, Dogecoin's exchange net flows have turned positive, a development that crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged as a "major rebound signal."

According to Glassnode data shared by Martinez, the metric tracking net deposits and withdrawals across centralized exchanges showed a pronounced green bar crossing back above zero after months of persistent red. The chart reveals that from early 2025 through mid-November, exchanges experienced sustained net outflows of roughly 5 to 6 billion DOGE as prices declined from the mid-$0.20s to below $0.15.

The sudden reversal carries historical weight. During late 2024, a similar cluster of positive exchange flows accompanied Dogecoin's rally from below $0.10 to a local peak near $0.48. While positive net inflows can indicate traders positioning to sell, Martinez notes that in DOGE's case, such transitions have historically coincided with local bottoms rather than extended downturns.

"This shift has marked sharp rebounds before," Martinez wrote on X, highlighting previous instances where the flow reversal preceded relief rallies.

The development adds another layer to an increasingly complex technical picture where traditional breakdown signals clash with emerging reversal indicators.

Whale Accumulation Reaches $770 Million in Two Weeks

Even as prices deteriorated throughout November, Dogecoin's largest non-exchange holders have been accumulating at an accelerating pace, according to on-chain data from Santiment.

Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE, a cohort representing holdings worth roughly $17.5 million to $175 million at current prices, added approximately 4.72 billion tokens over a two-week period. This pushed their aggregate stack to about 32.4 billion coins, up from approximately 27.6 billion at the start of the accumulation window.

At current prices, that accumulation represents nearly $770 million worth of DOGE changing hands from weak retail flows to what market observers term "strong hands."

The behavior mirrors patterns from previous Dogecoin cycles. In earlier market phases, heavy whale accumulation has typically appeared near medium-term bottoms rather than at euphoric peaks. These large holders appear to have been strategically "buying the dip," absorbing supply as prices declined and effectively reducing the pool of tokens available on exchanges.

However, the picture isn't uniformly bullish. Separate on-chain analysis indicates that some larger whale clusters, particularly those holding between 10 million and 100 million DOGE, have been liquidating positions, offloading roughly $730 million worth of the asset since mid-October. The divergence between accumulating mid-tier whales and distributing larger holders creates uncertainty about the net effect on price.

ETF Catalysts Converge as SEC Review Windows Close

Adding urgency to the technical setup, multiple Dogecoin ETF applications are approaching critical regulatory milestones that could inject fresh catalysts into an otherwise fearful market.

Both Grayscale and Bitwise have filed for spot Dogecoin ETFs utilizing Section 8(a) of the Securities Act, which allows registration statements to become effective automatically 20 days after filing unless the SEC intervenes. This fast-track approach bypasses the more complex 19b-4 exchange rule procedure typically required for ETF launches.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has indicated that Grayscale's Dogecoin ETF (ticker: GDOG) could launch as early as November 24, while Bitwise's filing targets November 26 for potential automatic approval. Bloomberg analysts estimate a 90% probability that multiple Dogecoin ETFs could be trading by year-end.

If approved, these products would mark a significant milestone for meme coins, following the first Dogecoin ETF launched in September 2025 by Rex Financial and Osprey Funds. That futures-based product, trading under ticker DOJE, has already demonstrated institutional appetite for regulated Dogecoin exposure.

The convergence of ETF decisions with the current technical setup creates what some analysts describe as a binary outcome scenario: approval could trigger immediate repricing as institutional capital gains access through tax-efficient vehicles, while rejection or delay would likely accelerate selling into an already weak market.

Technical Breakdown Meets Oversold Conditions

From a pure chart perspective, Dogecoin's collapse below $0.155 completes the resolution of a year-long descending triangle pattern, traditionally projecting continuation toward the $0.145 to $0.140 zone.

The decline drove price directly into the lower boundary of this multi-month structure, violating the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the prior cycle and confirming what technical analysts consider a definitive breakdown. With the price now trading below all major moving averages, including the 20-day at $0.17 and the 50-day at $0.20, short-term momentum indicators lean decidedly bearish.

Yet counter-signals are emerging that complicate the bearish thesis.

The Relative Strength Index has begun building bullish divergence against fresh price lows, rising even as DOGE prints new lows, a classic early warning of potential trend exhaustion. Meanwhile, the MACD's bearish signals are rapidly fading, hinting that downward momentum may be losing steam. The proximity to the lower Bollinger Band at $0.15 suggests oversold conditions that historically limit further downside.

Martinez has also identified what he calls "the most significant support level" for Dogecoin at approximately $0.08, where 27.4 billion DOGE have accumulated according to UTXO Realized Price Distribution data. Between that zone and current prices, the chart shows a notable gap with only small intermediate support levels, suggesting that if $0.15 fails to hold, the next major demand zone lies considerably lower.

Broader Market Conditions Weigh on Meme Coins

Dogecoin's breakdown did not occur in isolation. The meme coin remains highly correlated to Bitcoin's price action, and the broader crypto market has entered what some analysts characterize as an "extremely bearish phase."

Bitcoin's death cross, occurring when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day, materialized on November 16 as the flagship cryptocurrency fell below $90,000 for the first time since February. The signal, while imperfect, tends to coincide with multi-week drawdowns when accompanied by evaporating liquidity and stalled ETF inflows.

Total crypto market capitalization has fallen from over $4.3 trillion in early October to approximately $3.25 trillion, erasing more than $1 trillion in value. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, which had absorbed more than $25 billion earlier in the year, have flatlined amid concerns that tariff policies could reignite inflation and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The death cross has historically carried nuanced implications. According to CoinDesk analysis, this marks the fourth occurrence since Bitcoin's current cycle began in 2023, and each previous instance aligned with major local bottoms, including September 2023 near $25,000, August 2024 during the yen carry trade unwind at $49,000, and April 2025 below $75,000.

Whether the pattern repeats remains the defining question for both Bitcoin and correlated assets like Dogecoin.

Key Levels and Catalysts to Watch

For traders navigating the current volatility, several technical and fundamental markers will likely determine DOGE's near-term trajectory.

On the bullish side, a reclaim of the $0.155 level would negate the breakdown thesis and potentially reopen a path toward $0.162 to $0.165 resistance. Continued positive exchange net inflows would strengthen the case for accumulation ahead of a relief rally, particularly if whale buying persists at current levels.

The bearish scenario crystallizes on a failure to hold $0.150, which would expose fast continuation toward demand zones at $0.115 and potentially $0.085. Any negative ETF developments would likely accelerate such a move, as would further deterioration in Bitcoin and broader risk sentiment.

The ETF timeline creates a defined window for resolution. Should Grayscale and Bitwise receive automatic approval by late November without SEC intervention, Dogecoin would join Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana among the few cryptocurrencies available through U.S.-regulated exchange-traded funds, a status that could drive sustained institutional demand despite near-term volatility.

Given the daily average true range of approximately $0.01, position sizing should account for potential 6% to 8% daily swings as DOGE navigates this critical support zone.

A Market at Inflection

Dogecoin finds itself at what may be the most consequential technical and fundamental juncture since its November 2024 rally to nearly $0.50.

The breakdown is real: major support has shattered, Bitcoin's death cross looms over the entire crypto complex, and sentiment has collapsed into extreme fear. Yet the accumulation is also real: nearly $770 million in whale buying, exchange flows flipping positive for the first time in half a year, and multiple ETF products potentially days away from trading.

The resolution of this tension, whether through continued breakdown or sharp reversal, will likely determine Dogecoin's trajectory into 2026. For now, the meme coin sits compressed between these opposing forces, awaiting the catalyst that tips the balance.