Dogecoin has declined for several days amid broader market weakness, yet the meme coin's valuation remains inflated ahead of Monday's launch of Grayscale's Dogecoin ETF. The token trades at $0.143, holding above key support at $0.142, but faces a month-long downtrend that has resisted multiple breakout attempts. The ETF debut could generate the transaction volume needed to realign Dogecoin's price with its on-chain activity, analysts say. Otherwise, DOGE could go as low as $0.13.
Key Facts:
- Dogecoin's NVT Ratio is spiking sharply, indicating the token's market value has outpaced its actual transaction volume, a pattern that typically signals overvaluation
- The Liveliness metric has climbed for several consecutive days, showing long-term holders are keeping coins dormant rather than selling into the decline
- Grayscale's Dogecoin ETF is set to launch Monday, with expectations for capital inflows that could push prices above $0.151 and invalidate the current downtrend
What Happened: ETF Anticipation
Dogecoin's Network Value to Transactions Ratio has surged in recent days, creating a widening gap between the token's market capitalization and its actual usage on the blockchain. The metric compares price to transaction volume, and rising readings suggest that market valuation has detached from fundamental activity.
According to data from Santiment, Dogecoin is drawing social attention and maintaining broad investor support, but the underlying transaction levels have not kept pace with the price.
This disconnect typically precedes corrections in bearish markets.
The timing of the spike, however, coincides with Monday's expected launch of Grayscale's DOGE ETF, which market participants anticipate will attract institutional capital.
Such inflows could recalibrate the ratio and restore equilibrium between valuation and blockchain usage, according to on-chain analysts tracking the token.
Dogecoin trades near a critical support zone. The token has tested $0.142 multiple times without breaking lower, but it remains confined beneath a downtrend line established over the past month. Without a catalyst, technical analysts say the coin faces difficulty mounting a sustained recovery.
Why It Matters: Holder Behavior
Long-term Dogecoin holders have increased their commitment to the token despite the price decline. Data from Glassnode shows the Liveliness metric has risen steadily, indicating that coins are staying in wallets for longer periods rather than moving to exchanges for sale. The metric tracks the ratio of coin age to total supply, and upward movement signals that holders are weathering volatility without liquidating positions.
This behavior from established holders provides a stabilizing force during market downturns. Short-term traders often amplify price swings, but long-term participants typically absorb selling pressure and reduce the likelihood of cascading liquidations.
Their continued accumulation suggests confidence that market conditions will improve once external factors, such as the ETF launch, begin to affect price action.
The ETF's performance will determine whether Dogecoin can break its current pattern. A successful debut with strong inflows could lift the token above resistance at $0.151 and open a path toward $0.165, invalidating the month-long downtrend.
Failure to generate buying momentum, however, could send Dogecoin toward $0.130.
Even if the token avoids that sharper decline, it may continue struggling beneath $0.151, extending the downtrend into the coming weeks.
Looking Ahead
Monday's ETF launch represents a pivotal moment for Dogecoin's near-term trajectory. The combination of elevated NVT ratios and strong holder behavior creates a situation where substantial new volume could quickly shift market dynamics. Whether that volume materializes depends on institutional appetite for exposure to the meme coin sector.