Former Binance business development executive Chase Guo has predicted that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach a new all-time high in 2026, driven not by halving cycles or retail enthusiasm but by liquidity positioning and structural dynamics within the crypto market itself.
What Happened: Liquidity Over Hype
In a recent interview, Guo argued that the next major Bitcoin breakout will be shaped by market mechanics rather than narrative conviction. "The reason will shock people," he said.
The former executive identified three forces that he believes govern crypto asset pricing: liquidity, attention, and token holder distribution — sometimes called "chip structure." These elements, he argued, determine price trends over short- to medium-term cycles of seven days to three months.
Guo pointed to a pattern where large players exploit market consensus. When most traders align around a single bullish or bearish narrative, liquidity clusters around predictable price levels, creating opportunities for sophisticated participants to engineer volatility. "When consensus forms, it becomes a target," he implied, referencing historical episodes of crowded positioning that led to rapid liquidations and sharp reversals.
In his view, the next all-time high could emerge from a liquidity squeeze, where derivatives exposure, capital rotation, and positioning converge to force price discovery beyond previous highs. He cautioned, however, that the path would be volatile and counterintuitive — marked by sharp swings designed to shake out overleveraged traders before any sustained move higher.
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Why It Matters: Manipulation Concerns
Guo's remarks carry added weight given the regulatory backdrop surrounding Binance. His description of a market dominated by liquidity games and short-term incentives closely mirrors allegations made by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in its 2023 lawsuit against the exchange and founder Changpeng Zhao, which cited wash trading, inflated volumes, and in-house market-making practices.
The Oct. 10, 2025, flash crash further intensified scrutiny. During the sharp selloff that hit Bitcoin and major altcoins within minutes, users reported order delays, disabled functions, and unusual price wicks that triggered forced liquidations at levels far above normal. Binance leadership, including Richard Teng and Zhao, attributed the event to macro shocks and industry-wide leverage, denying any manipulation.
The episode reinforced broader concerns that opaque market-making practices and concentrated liquidity can magnify systemic risk during periods of stress.
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